On Wednesday night, Chen Daoxiang, commander of the People’s Liberation Army’s Hong Kong garrison of about 6,000 troops, warned that “extreme violent attacks” would not be tolerated and that the PLA was determined to protect China’s sovereignty and safeguard Hong Kong’s stability.

Chen issued the warning at an event to mark the 92nd anniversary of the founding of the PLA in front of Hong Kong’s political and business elites, as well as representatives of foreign consulates in the city.

Chen’s forceful warning was followed the same night by the PLA Hong Kong garrison’s move to upload a three-minute video on the Chinese social media platform Weibo. The video opens with scenes of live-firing drills and anti-riot exercises by fully armoured soldiers, complete with helicopters, tanks, missile launchers, and warships.

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Adding to the concerns, a White House official on Tuesday told reporters the American government was monitoring units of PLA or armed police that were gathered at the border with Hong Kong.

But since then, the White House official’s comments have been largely dismissed. The American government might have mistaken a large-scale swearing-in ceremony by Guangdong police, who were involved in preparations to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic.

According to official media reports, more than 160,000 local and armed police took part in the event in major Guangdong cities on Tuesday.

There is no doubt that Chen’s stark warning was aimed at scaring the protesters into backing down, even though the protests – already entering their third month – have shown no sign of abating.

Instead, the protesters who had largely confined their actions to weekends, now spread their activities to week days, including disrupting mass transport at peak hours and gathering outside a police station.

While the possibility of a military intervention in the city cannot be ruled out, the chances are very slim, even though dangers of a serious breakdown in law and order in the city are very real.

Harsh truths for Hong Kong: protests will not achieve anything

But circumstances leading to that unfortunate and sad incident are grossly different from those surrounding Hong Kong today.

By contrast, the unrest in Hong Kong is in no way a threat to the ruling party in Beijing and the city is far from spiralling out of control. Moreover, as the aftermath of the Tiananmen crackdown has shown, the ensuing international sanctions could set China’s economic growth back years if PLA tanks were to enter Hong Kong.

Besides, the Chinese military forces are meant to defend against the foreign enemies – they should not target Chinese protesters.

That explains why Chinese officials have expressed their resolute support for the Hong Kong police to handle the protests.

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Having said that, some analysts in Beijing are also mindful of the fact that radicals on both the right and left are trying to incite further violence and provoke Beijing’s more forceful intervention.

Those on the far right may harbour hopes that a military intervention by Beijing would compel the US and other Western countries to unite and push back against Beijing; those on the far left may believe a forceful intervention by Beijing could quell dissent and bring stability.

Either view is delusional, to say the least.

Most likely, Beijing’s strategy is to wait out the protests. If worse comes to worst, the collapse of the city’s economy would hardly produce a long-lasting effect on national economic development. Hong Kong’s economy relative to China’s gross domestic product has fallen from about 20 per cent at the time of the handover from British rule in 1997 to less than 3 per cent today. Last year, the economy of neighbouring Shenzhen overtook Hong Kong’s for the first time.

While Hong Kong is very unlikely to become a real combat zone, it is far more likely to shape up as a battleground for political influence between the United States and China.

For years, Chinese officials have held deep suspicions that Washington has used its intertwined political and business influences in Hong Kong to foment trouble and use the city as a base to subvert the rule of the party, pointing to the fact that its consulate in Hong Kong is the largest of its kind in Asia, among other things.

Over the past few days, such misgivings have become very public as the Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said the violent protests in Hong Kong were “the work of the US” and “the US owes the world an explanation”.

She has cited meetings between senior US officials and prominent supporters of the protests, and the fact that many local protesters have waved American flags.

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Hua’s words were echoed on Wednesday by the former Hong Kong leader Tung Chee-hwa, who accused the US and Taiwan of orchestrating the “well-organised” protests. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has dismissed Hua’s accusations and said it was “ridiculous” for China to suggest the US was behind the escalating demonstrations.

At a time when Washington is intensifying its all-out campaign to push against the rise of China, Hong Kong is unfortunately being thrust into the very centre. ■

Wang Xiangwei is the former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post. He is now based in Beijing as editorial adviser to the paper