Japan’s defence spending is expected to set a record next year as the country buys expensive American weapons amid threats from China and North Korea. Among the biggest purchases are six F-35B stealth fighters at 14 billion yen each for deployment in 2024. Photo: AP
Opinion
Quick Take
by Rupakjyoti Borah
Quick Take
by Rupakjyoti Borah
Is China the target of Japan’s record-busting defence budget?
Tokyo faces myriad threats, from China, North Korea and Russia to cyberattacks on the Summer Olympics
And Abe’s golf buddy Trump may not always be around to bail Japan out
Japan’s Ministry of Defence has requested a record 5.32 trillion yen (US$50.5 billion) for the next financial year.
If approved, this will be the eighth straight year-on-year increase in Tokyo’s defence spending and represents a 1.2 per cent increase over the previous year. So, what’s behind the increase?
To begin with, there is the North Korea factor. Of late, North Korea has been testing a series of missiles at regular intervals. While these are short- and medium-range missiles and have not landed in Japan’s EEZ (exclusive economic zone), the worry for Japan is that these tests have not elicited much of a response from Washington.
That could be both good and bad news. It could mean that Washington does not see these tests by Pyongyang as reason for alarm. But that lack of alarm on America’s behalf may be because while it sees long-range missiles capable of hitting its bases in Guam as a threat, it’s less worried about short-range missiles that can’t reach its territory.
After the talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, in Singapore in June 2018, long-range missile tests by Pyongyang stopped. Trump also seems to have been bowled over by the North Korean strongman, whom he last met at the DMZ (demilitarised zone) between North and South Korea.
Second, is the China factor. Beijing has claims over the Japanese-held Senkaku islands (known as the Diaoyus in China) and in the past Chinese vessels and aircraft have intruded into Japanese territory. In addition, China has been steadfastly behind North Korea, though under pressure from the United States and other nations, it has had to obey UN sanctions on Pyongyang. While Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited China last October, the territorial issue is a major issue of divergence in China-Japan relations.
North Korea test fires a new missile in August 2019. Photo: Reuters
A third factor is the growing bonhomie between China and Russia. Although Abe has tried his best and been quite successful in building a rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin, this has not translated into much forward movement at the ground level, with the two countries being unable to resolve their own long-festering territorial dispute over the Kuril islands.
Fourth, Abe has been under pressure from the Trump administration on the issue of trade and hence he is likely to try to please the Trump administration by placing orders for more US-made weaponry. Trump has also been cajoling the Abe administration to take more responsibility for its own defences and this is not lost on Tokyo. In the run-up to his election in the US, Trump also suggested Japan and South Korea could have their own nuclear weapons.
Fifth, relations with South Korea have been in free fall. While both Japan and South Korea are US allies, the two countries have fallen out of late over a host of issues and have imposed tit-for-tat sanctions on each other. Japan has imposed export restrictions on three important industrial materials used by South Korean companies to make semiconductors and display screens and has also removed South Korea from a list of countries which face minimum restrictions on items exported from Japan.
Tokyo also wants to strengthen its ballistic missile defences with a new generation of interceptor missiles. It has plans to deploy the Aegis Ashore land-based missile defence batteries in the Akita and Yamagichi prefectures to counter the threat from Pyongyang. Tokyo also aims to refit its helicopter destroyers the JS Izumo and the JS Kaga to allow for aircraft like the F-35B Short Take off and Vertical Landing to operate from them. These two helicopter carriers have already been sent on extensive long-term deployments.
A Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force ensign on the deck of the destroyer Suzutsuki as it arrives in China's Qingdao port. Photo: Kyodo
Japan is also keen to invest in future technology. The defence ministry has asked for ¥23.8 billion to increase staff in the cyberdefence unit and to take countermeasures against cyberattacks. This has particular significance given Tokyo will host the Summer Olympics next year.
All these are in keeping with Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision”, under which Tokyo has been trying to gain a bigger foothold in the region and beyond. Abe’s government is most likely to approve the budget request. What is clear is that Japan under Abe is trying to play an increasingly influential role in what is now known as the Indo-Pacific. Given Trump’s maverick nature, Abe understands well that his “Golf Buddy” may not always be around to bail Japan out. After all, Trump has always put “America First”.
Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is a Research Fellow with the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies in Tokyo
