Indonesia announced its first Covid-19 case on March 2, more than a month after its neighbours Singapore and Malaysia reported their first infections, and subsequently, President Joko Widodo admitted that some information had been withheld from the public to avoid causing alarm. With Indonesia now having 6,760 infections and 590 deaths, the highest number of fatalities in Southeast Asia, there are worries about whether the health care sector can handle the expected continued surge in cases. Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, has been at the centre of criticism over the government’s response. Observers say his policies have been reactive, and contradictory of his image as an efficient leader. He was a widely praised mayor of the city of Solo and governor of the capital Jakarta before becoming president in 2014, known for meeting with residents directly to hear their views and making improvements to governance by bypassing bureaucracy. But his hesitance in implementing more restrictive measures, such as a nationwide lockdown, comes despite increasing evidence suggesting restrictions on activities and social distancing can slow the spread of the virus. The crux of the issue is the government’s desire to balance its economic needs and citizens’ health security, which are linked. It seems to worry that by ordering businesses to shut and citizens to stay home, it would have to take on the burden of providing basic necessities such as food and medicine for millions of its residents nationwide, which would put further strain on resources. Moreover, the government could face a backlash, especially from blue-collar workers if it proceeds with a full lockdown without a proper communication strategy. Not everyone has the luxury of working from home. Although Jokowi has little to lose after winning his second and final term in office, he has his legacy to protect. During last year’s election campaign, he promised to develop the Indonesian economy, attract more investment, and create jobs. After winning the election, Jokowi made the ambitious promise to move the capital city out of Jakarta to East Kalimantan, which could cost 466 trillion rupiah (US$32.7 billion). Coronavirus: in Indonesia, fears over Bali’s laid-back approach Covid-19 has hit the Indonesian economy hard. Many projects have been delayed, such as the planned Jakarta-Bandung high speed rail, initially scheduled for completion in 2021 and a joint venture between Indonesian and Chinese companies. The outbreak has also resulted in the country redirecting its resources to emerging social problems such as poverty and rising inequality, with Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati predicting that unemployment could affect up to 5.2 million people, leaving many impoverished. Indonesia’s tourism industry, heavily reliant on mainland Chinese, South Korean and Japanese visitors, has been hit badly. Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Pandjaitan recently spelt out the government’s wish to attract visitors from these countries as soon as the crisis was under control. As Jokowi’s government dithers in taking difficult measures, provincial governors are stepping up to take matters into their own hands, burnishing their own reputations ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Coronavirus: Indonesia braces for exodus of millions of workers The public and media have commended governors Ridwan Kamil (West Java), Anies Baswedan (Jakarta), and Ganjar Pranowo (Central Java) for making quick and tough decisions. For example, Baswedan successfully lobbied for a partial lockdown in the capital with limits placed on the number of people allowed on public transport and other measures to enforce social distancing, though reports suggest people are not taking these measures seriously enough. The governors have also told city dwellers not to return to the provinces to mark the end of the fasting month of Ramadan while in Jakarta, it took the central government several weeks to derive at the same decision. On 21 April, the government finally chose to ban the mass migration known as mudik. Scheduled to happen in late May, the annual mudik could increase the scale and speed of community spread, potentially spreading the virus from Jakarta to the rural districts. Indonesia’s low testing rate compared to its neighbours – it has done more than 49,700 tests while Singapore with 5.6 million people had conducted more than 94,000 tests as of mid-April and Malaysia with 31.5 million people has done 100,000 – suggests there are infections that have gone undetected. Not everyone will be pleased with the government’s decision to ban mudik. In an earlier survey by Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC), 31 per cent of Jakarta residents said they would continue to return home. Coronavirus: Indonesia’s Widodo allows travel after Ramadan Conversely, preventing urban dwellers visiting villages from returning to the cities after they finish celebrating Eid ul-Fitr would mean months of unemployment. The social implications of this are unthinkable, but a look at the experience of other countries experiencing the same phenomenon shows it could lead to mass social unrest. To be fair, the Indonesian government has been faced with tough choices. It has had to weigh if the continuation of economic activity amid exhortations to practise hygiene and social distancing is the best way to ensure human security, or if a lockdown to force people to stay indoors is the best form of protection. The author is a senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute