As the US and China clash, what can other countries do?
- Neighbours and partners must work to rebuild cross-border trade and boost supply chains as a leadership gap widens during the coronavirus pandemic
- Lessons can be drawn from the efforts of Asian countries, which signed their own FTAs as a backup plan to global trade when WTO negotiations stalled at the start of the 2000s
The question is, what can others do about it? The current assumption is, not much. And this may sadly be right, with little prospect of decisive global cooperation on the coronavirus.
But another question remains: can any good come from the efforts of third countries?
While the US and China are the largest economies, the rest account for some 60 per cent of global GDP. Fighting Covid-19 involves many measures by multiple actors and there is a plethora of areas where win-win cooperation could benefit.
02:06
Coronavirus pandemic creates ‘new Cold War’ as US-China relations sink to lowest point in decades
TRADE AND TRUST
Trade has been severely impacted, both in general volume and value, and particularly in relation to medical equipment and food supplies. When the virus first spread, there was a clear sense of panic and declarations of “emergency” covered over many protectionist measures.
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This approach to rebuild cross-border trade must be applied to essential goods. Additionally, countries must consider ways to reopen borders for travellers, especially businesspeople, as lockdowns begin to ease and commerce restarts.
Seven other countries have since pledged their commitment towards this plurilateral initiative. Trade ministers from Australia, Britain, New Zealand and Singapore also resolved to “lead the world in restoring and deepening global trade”.
While final agreements will take some time, like-minded countries can step forward together. Trust is essential and can be built where there are similar approaches to both economic and health issues, and comparable systems of governance and rule of law.
Larger regional groups can lend support. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) trade ministers have issued a formal statement calling for trade to continue. They recognise that emergency measures might be enacted in a crisis, but should be “targeted, proportionate, transparent, temporary”. But Apec as a whole will struggle to do more – its summit has in recent years been captive to Sino-American contention.
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None of this means the two most powerful countries can be ignored. China continues to donate vast amounts of masks, test kits and PPE, especially to its neighbours. Despite the US domestic situation, the Trump administration will channel a useful US$35 million into Asean for emergency health funding.
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Yet, other countries must start to look at ways to work together. The expectation is that, without a vaccine, the Covid-19 could remain a factor for years, with subsequent waves of outbreaks. Without China and the US, the helm of global leadership will remain empty. However, the like-minded can begin to help themselves and each other, and these efforts can form a patchwork of necessary initiatives. When conditions allow for trust, these circles can be broadened.
There are precedents. In the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, a series of bilateral currency arrangements started among the Asean Plus 3 countries. These were later multilateralised and helped stabilise the region when the Global Financial Crisis hit the West. When World Trade Organisation negotiations slowed and stalled at the start of the 2000s, Asian countries began their own free trade agreements (FTAs) as their backup plan to global trade. These have grown, with the largest ones now being the Regional Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP), covering almost all major economies in Asia; and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), that extends across the Pacific.
Smaller initiatives found these paths first. It was not the giants, but New Zealand and Singapore who signed the earliest bilateral regional trade agreement in 2000. The two countries then tied up with Chile and Brunei to launch the Pacific-4 that later evolved into the CPTPP – a regional FTA that endured even after Trump backed away from it.
Smaller efforts can start and others may join and lead to bigger things. We can all agonise fatalistically about the Sino-American conflict and lack of leadership but fighting Covid-19 deserves, and needs, more hope and initiative.
Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) and associate professor of international law at the National University of Singapore. Jessica Wau is assistant director (Asean) at SIIA.
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