Protest-riven Belarus needs heroic diplomacy. Can Asia supply it?
- As the impasse between government and demonstrators consolidates, Minsk needs an external party to navigate the problem of succession
- Asian capitals from Seoul to Singapore, seen as neutral, have the chance to prove themselves capable of international-level choreography and complexity
Three scenarios present themselves over the coming few weeks, as the impasse in Minsk between the government and protesters consolidates. This is, as I have stressed before, an impasse not over a single election but rather over the very post-Soviet problem of succession.
In the second scenario – in my judgment, more probable – the authorities in Minsk are able to crush or, more accurately, exhaust the protests. Lukashenko governs for another year or two, but with diminished confidence and legitimacy. A new round of protests resumes before long.
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Only heroic diplomacy – the third scenario – can save the day.
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If the coronavirus pandemic has very paradoxically ushered in the start of the Asian century, then it is also true that Asian diplomacy, beyond strictly economic transactions related to international trade and investment, remains largely local – regional at best, parochial at worst.
When the Institute for 21st Century Questions, which I head, proposed an Indian-led peacekeeping algorithm for solving the Ukraine crisis back in 2014-15 (one eventually accepted as dominant by Ukraine, Russia, China and Canada), the Indian reaction showed intellectual appreciation of the algorithm but, at core, a deep lack of official confidence in Delhi’s capacity to play (or, more precisely, lead) at such a strategic level – that is, at the intersection of great powers like Russia, the US and the EU.
But now the world needs leading Asian states to step up more than ever. Diplomatic intervention in Belarus would, in my humble submission, be well received by dint of Asian neutrality in the post-Soviet space – even if it would surprise (which also has its reputational merits).
What would an Asian-engineered exit from crisis look like in Belarus? Answer: it must secure a legitimate, safe, stable and well-resourced succession for President Lukashenko, the Belarusian state and Belarusian society. But the intervention cannot stop there, given the connections between the Belarus situation and other theatres.
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It must therefore aim to finally resolve the Donbass conflict, with Asian peacekeepers packaged in a larger compact that restabilises Ukraine constitutionally and economically, while connecting Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union – very much including Belarus – to the EU via any number of “interstitial” mechanisms like a special economic zone in Ukraine’s southeast.
Of course, the window for resolution of the Ukraine conflict has by now effectively closed – which makes a sustainable Belarus solution all the more improbable. The intensification of the stand-off between Washington and Beijing, too, has only intensified during the Covid-19 period. All of this means that Asian diplomatic intervention would come far later than it should, at a time when the world’s conflicts are more wicked, more entrenched and more intertwined than at any point over the past 30 years.
Can one or more Asian capitals play at this level of international choreography and complexity? Let’s see. They may be saving themselves in the process, and the world along with themselves. They may as such make the Asian century a long one – or, in failure or reticence, a short one.
Irvin Studin is President of the Institute for 21st Century Questions, and Editor-in-Chief and Publisher of Global Brief Magazine (Toronto)