Is US-Iran clash coming before Trump leaves office?
- The US and Israel have reportedly deployed submarines to the Gulf after Iran announced it would begin enriching uranium beyond agreed-upon limits
- The head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned his country ‘will give our final words to our enemies on the battlefield’
Just ahead of the one-year anniversary of the US assassination of Iran’s charismatic General Qassem Soleimani of the Quds Force, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that his country would respond forcefully to any provocations.
“Today, we have no problem, concern or apprehension toward encountering any powers,” General Hossein Salami was quoted as saying last week at a Tehran University ceremony by The Washington Post. “We will give our final words to our enemies on the battlefield.”
Israeli military leaders are likewise preparing for potential Iranian retaliation over the November assassination of senior Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh – an act Tehran blames on the Jewish state.
Both the US and Israel have reportedly deployed submarines to the Gulf in recent days. One of the submarines, the USS Georgia, is notably armed with 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles, and the US has also flown nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to the region in a show of force.
And in another worrying sign, the acting US defence secretary, Christopher Miller, announced over the weekend that the US would not withdraw the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its strike group from the Middle East – a swift reversal from the Pentagon’s earlier decision to send the ship home.
ISRAEL’S PRIORITIES UNDER A NEW US ADMINISTRATION
Any American military response against Iran would also make it much more difficult for Biden to establish a working relationship with Iran and potentially resurrect the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
It’s likely in any case the Biden administration will have less interest in getting much involved in the Middle East – this is not high on the list of priorities for the incoming administration. However, a restoration of the Iranian nuclear agreement in return for the lifting of US sanctions would be welcomed by Washington’s European allies.
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Iran vows revenge as it holds funeral for assassinated nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrinzadeh
This suggests Israel could be left to run its own agenda in the Middle East during the Biden administration.
Israel sees Iran as its major ongoing security threat because of its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian militants in Gaza.
One of Israel’s key strategic policies is also to prevent Iran from ever becoming a nuclear weapon state. Israel is the only nuclear weapon power in the Middle East and is determined to keep it that way.
In recent days, Tehran announced it would begin enriching uranium to 20 per cent as quickly as possible, exceeding the limits agreed to in the 2015 nuclear deal.
This is a significant step and could prompt an Israeli strike on Iran’s underground Fordo nuclear facility. Jerusalem contemplated doing so nearly a decade ago when Iran previously began enriching uranium to 20 per cent.
HOW THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL FELL APART
Iran’s nuclear programme began in the 1950s, ironically with US assistance as part of the “Atoms for Peace” programme. Western cooperation continued until the 1979 Iranian Revolution toppled the pro-Western shah of Iran. International nuclear cooperation with Iran was then suspended, but the Iranian programme resumed in the 1980s.
The JCPOA tightly restricted Iran’s nuclear activities in return for the lifting of sanctions. However, this breakthrough soon fell apart with Trump’s election.
In April 2018, Netanyahu revealed Iranian nuclear programme documents obtained by Mossad, claiming Iran had been maintaining a covert weapons programme. The following month, Trump announced the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and a reimposition of American sanctions.
Iran initially said it would continue to abide by the nuclear deal, but after the Soleimani assassination last January, Tehran abandoned its commitments, including any restrictions on uranium enrichment.
ISRAEL’S HISTORY OF PREVENTIVE STRIKES
Israel, meanwhile, has long sought to disrupt its adversaries’ nuclear programmes through its “preventive strike” policy, also known as the “Begin Doctrine”.
In 1981, Israeli aircraft struck and destroyed Iraq’s atomic reactor at Osirak, believing it was being constructed for nuclear weapons purposes. And in 2007, Israeli aircraft struck the al-Kibar nuclear facility in Syria for the same reason.
Starting in 2007, Mossad also apparently conducted an assassination programme to impede Iranian nuclear research. Between January 2010 and January 2012, Mossad is believed to have organised the assassinations of four nuclear scientists in Iran. Another scientist was wounded in an attempted killing.
Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in the killings.
Iran is suspected to have responded to the assassinations with an unsuccessful bomb attack against Israeli diplomats in Bangkok in February 2012. The three Iranians convicted for that attack were the ones recently exchanged for the release of Australian academic Kylie Moore-Gilbert from an Iranian prison.
The Mossad assassination programme was reportedly suspended under pressure from the Obama administration to facilitate the Iran nuclear deal. But there seems little doubt the assassination of Fakhrizadeh was organised by Mossad as part of its ongoing efforts to undermine the Iranian nuclear programmeme.
Fakhrizadeh is believed to have been the driving force behind covert elements of Iran’s nuclear programme for many decades.
The timing of his killing was perfect from an Israeli perspective. It put the Iranian regime under domestic pressure to retaliate. If it did, however, it risked a military strike by the truculent outgoing Trump administration.
It’s fortunate Moore-Gilbert was whisked out of Iran just before the killing, as there’s little likelihood Iran would have released a prisoner accused of spying for Israel (even if such charges were baseless) after such a blatant assassination had taken place in Iran.
Where does all this leave us now? Much will depend on Iran’s response to what it sees (with some justification) as Israeli and US provocation.
The best outcome would be for no obvious Iranian retaliation or military action despite strong domestic pressure for the leadership to act forcefully. This would leave the door open for Biden to resume the nuclear deal, with US sanctions lifted under strict safeguards to ensure Iran is not able to maintain a covert weapons programme.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.