Opinion | Seriously ugly: here’s how Australia will look if the world heats up by 3 degrees Celsius this century
- Disastrous yearly wildfires, coastlines reshaped by floods and the disappearance of the Great Barrier Reef can be expected if climate change is not addressed
- New research by the Australian Academy of Science explores the potential damage – and what must be done to avoid it
Imagine, for a moment, a different kind of Australia. One where bushfires on the catastrophic scale of Black Summer happen almost every year. One where 50 degree Celsius (122 degree Fahrenheit) days in Sydney and Melbourne are common. Where storms and flooding have violently reshaped our coastlines, and unique ecosystems have been damaged beyond recognition – including the Great Barrier Reef, which no longer exists.
Frighteningly, this is not an imaginary future dystopia. It’s a scientific projection of Australia under 3 degrees of global warming – a future we must both strenuously try to avoid, but also prepare for.
The sum of current commitments under the Paris climate accord puts Earth on track for 3 degrees of warming this century. Research released on Wednesday by the Australian Academy of Science explores this scenario in detail.
The report, which we co-authored with colleagues, lays out the potential damage to Australia’s ecosystems, food production, urban centres and human health. Unless the world changes course and dramatically curbs greenhouse gas emissions, this is how bad it could get.
A SPOTLIGHT ON THE DAMAGE
Nations signed up to the Paris Agreement collectively aim to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees this century and to pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees. But on current emissions-reduction pledges, global temperatures are expected to far exceed these goals, reaching 2.9 degrees by 2100.
Australia is the driest inhabited continent, and already has a highly variable climate of “droughts and flooding rains”. This is why of all developed nations, Australia has been identified as one of the most vulnerable to climate change.
The damage is already evident. Since records began in 1910, Australia’s average surface temperature has warmed by 1.4 degrees, and its open ocean areas have warmed by 1 degree. Extreme events – such as storms, droughts, bushfires, heatwaves and floods – are becoming more frequent and severe.
Wednesday’s report brings together multiple lines of evidence such as computer modelling, observed changes and historical paleoclimate studies. It gives a picture of the damage that’s already occurred, and what Australia should expect next. It shines a spotlight on four sectors: ecosystems, food production, cities and towns, and health and well-being.