China can return stability to Myanmar and fix its image problem if it takes sides in the crisis
- Despite the rumours, Beijing has not yet lent decisive support to Myanmar’s junta, and has called for domestic political reconciliation to end the post-coup crisis
- But Myanmar will not be peaceful until it is a federal democracy, a political system that can be best achieved by working with the country’s democratic interim government
TURBULENT RELATIONSHIP
A deep-seated fear of being lorded over by China is part of Myanmar’s national identity. Through the early 1970s, Mao’s China backed the Communist Party of Burma with funding, arms, and even volunteers as it sought to overthrow the military dictatorship of General Ne Win. Out of the ruins of that conflict, ethnic militias such as the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) formed in the early 1990s in northern Shan State, both of which maintain close ties with China to this day.
Relations between Myanmar’s generals and Beijing then improved under the reformist regime of Deng Xiaoping and his successors, who sought constructive engagement. The generals, however, grew wary of China’s economic rise and the threat its increasing dominance might pose to them.
Chinese foreign minister warns against foreign interference in Myanmar
THE STABILITY BEIJING CRAVES
Beijing understands its policy of non-interference as meaning it will not impose its values on a foreign partner – it will work with liberal democracies and authoritarian governments alike.
Right now it is in China’s interest to work with Myanmar’s democratic interim government, led by the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), which is composed mostly of NLD MPs and operates from safe areas in the country’s southeast. The junta has made a mess of governing – its threats of nationalising assets, for instance, have accelerated investor flight – and is increasingly isolated. It has no legitimacy in the country, with protesters continuing to resist the coup, and even if it wins in the short-run, a junta-led Myanmar will not bring the stability Beijing craves.
The CRPH is currently forming a broad national unity government which will be inclusive of ethnic minorities – its federal democracy charter released on April 1 envisions a Myanmar with autonomy for its ethnic minorities. Based on this formula, China’s ethnic minority allies in the northeast might finally find a home in a stable, federal Myanmar.
Could ethnic armed groups turn the tide against Myanmar’s junta with help from Beijing?
On April 1, China reportedly massed troops on its southern border. It should use them to deter Myanmar’s military from further atrocities and to assist refugees fleeing the clashes between security forces and anti-coup protesters in both Kachin and Shan states. Most importantly, Beijing should turn down requests for loans coming from the bankrupt junta. Myanmar will not be peaceful until it is a federal democracy, and the unity currently on show against the coup offers the best opportunity to establish this new political system.
Beijing has the influence to bring about this victory, on its own or through its ethnic minority allies in Myanmar. Doing so will preserve regional stability, and will also help solve China’s long-standing image problem in the country.
Philipp Annawitt served as an adviser to Myanmar’s parliament and government from 2015 to 2021.