Some critics claim that had Anwar stepped aside, another leader, such as Shafie Apdal, who has Mahathir’s backing, could have won enough crossover support to become prime minister.

Further, the critics claim, Anwar is simply too liberal to be accepted by Malay-Muslim nationalists, and at 76 will be too old to appeal to younger voters when the next election is held, by September 2023 at the latest.

These criticisms ignore the opposition’s structural problems, which are more significant than one man. A new, younger leader without new direction would bring false hope.

The opposition’s problems begin with its obsession with the numbers game. For decades, the Barisan Nasional government successfully enticed dozens of opposition lawmakers at both federal and state levels to cross over.

When the Pakatan Harapan coalition lost power last year after the defection of MPs allied to Muhyiddin and Anwar’s deputy, Mohamed Azmin Ali, its disgruntled leaders and supporters sought to restore “the people’s mandate” earned in 2018, making futile attempts to entice reverse crossover from the government’s bench.

They fear defeat in the next election without the benefits of incumbency.

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But why should Umno back Anwar as prime minister over one of their own? Likewise, what’s the real benefit for Sarawak MPs to make Shafie from neighbouring Sabah the first premier from East Malaysia?

The opposition has displayed wishful thinking misrepresented as realism. Pakatan Harapan failed to contend seriously with the government on policy even as Muhyiddin’s leadership deteriorated during the pandemic.

Despite counting former ministers in its ranks, Pakatan Harapan has resisted calls to form a shadow cabinet. Its pursuit of power, without offering a clear alternative, has made the opposition appear self-serving and disconnected.

The opposition has also struggled to establish a coalition of voters that will deliver sustained, broad-based support to transform Malaysia.

Since 1998, the opposition’s base has contained moderate Muslims, ethnic minorities and liberals united by their rejection of the authoritarianism and corruption represented by Umno and Barisan Nasional.

They have however been unable to agree on fundamental questions, encompassing issues such as Malaysia’s pro-Malay affirmative action and Islamisation. Disagreement over these questions led partly to PAS and later Bersatu leaving the “big tent”.

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Pakatan Harapan in 2018 produced a comprehensive manifesto promoting inclusive ideas such as the elimination of racial discrimination and academic recognition of a Chinese community schools’ standardised examination, which appealed to its ethnic minority base but was overlooked by its Malay-Muslim supporters.

Soon after Pakatan Harapan’s victory in 2018, these issues were used by Umno and PAS to attack the coalition, especially Bersatu and PKR for selling out Malay-Muslims, exploiting the fault lines that would ultimately lead to Pakatan Harapan’s split.

To expand its base and deter lawmakers from defecting, Pakatan Harapan must be an alliance of voters, not just between politicians. It will require the different constituencies to negotiate compromises. This can be facilitated by a manifesto, provided it is not a flashy document but a process of coalition-building relying on smart policy ideas to reduce ethno-religious jealousies.

The third challenge for the opposition is in its internal power structure. Coalitions in Malaysia are largely based on interpersonal relationships and deals between politicians, with little formalised inter-party rules. In Mahathir’s cabinet, his Bersatu party had the third most parliamentary seats but was disproportionately influential. Similarly, Azmin’s PKR faction was privileged over Anwar’s. Similar conflicts also occurred in Muhyiddin’s government, contributing to its downfall.

Pakatan Harapan leaders have disingenuously cited tensions over ministerial allocation to justify their refusal to form a shadow cabinet. Their assumption is that if these tensions can be ignored until the coalition wins power, those tensions will be mitigated by power itself.

If Pakatan Harapan continues to seek power without offering a policy alternative, it should expect disappointment at the next election. It could be even worse if a messy leadership battle breaks out before then.

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Instead, the opposition should take a new direction and abandon its obsession with short-term gains and politics driven by personalities.

It must unite its diverse bases of support by presenting a manifesto that not only sounds impressive but can also be implemented. It should stop talking about the lost mandate of 2018 and instead form a shadow cabinet to hold the government accountable and develop a new generation of leaders.

Anwar can be a bridge to a better future. If he becomes a roadblock, he should be removed, but a change will be pointless if his replacement cannot address the old problems.