Opinion | Australia can learn from Asean when it comes to Russia-Ukraine stand-off
- The crisis has massive implications for the world; Australia needs to resist its usual inclinations and practise what Southeast Asian governments do
- China has remained disengaged, seeing no need to add fuel to Russia’s efforts to keep the US off balance
Make no mistake: the heightened risk of armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine has serious implications for Europe, especially the Nato members, as it does for the rest of the world. But most importantly, it has massive strategic consequences for the US. And that’s where it matters for Australia.
To judge from much western media reporting, to this point European and other governments have responded to President Putin’s pressure on Ukraine with more hype than substance, affording the Russian Foreign Minister and his diplomats a few easy free kicks.
In response to comments by Australia’s Defence Minister, for instance, Russia’s ambassador to Australia described the comments as “comic book style propaganda like Batman versus Joker”. A cheap shot, perhaps, but effective.
But an invasion of Ukraine is an altogether bigger and riskier matter when the main game is a head-to-head old-fashioned game of strategic realpolitik with the US. After decades of domestic political and social division and pointless, costly wars internationally, US power is eroding, its self-confidence is diminished and its global authority deeply tarnished.
The President is given to ‘misspeaks’ and missteps, with his negotiating team in Geneva unable to make progress. The effective replacement of the Deputy US Secretary of State Wendy Sherman by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in the Geneva talks with Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov demonstrates uncertainty on the part of the US in dealing with Putin. But while the US is evidently unable to extract concessions from Russia, it at least continues to pursue diplomacy and negotiation. Long may that last.
02:27
Amid Russian troop build-up in Belarus, Ukrainian soldiers doubt good result in Kremlin-US talks
The Geneva talks highlight the fact that central to this crisis in eastern Ukraine is the strategic relationship between Russia and the US, with Russia seeking – successfully it would seem – to keep the US off balance and the US seeking – less successfully it would seem – to retain its strategic pre-eminence in Europe.
