China may never abandon zero-Covid publicly, but an easing is inevitable

Any easing of coronavirus curbs will be done with extreme caution ahead of China’s 20th party Congress this autumn – too much political capital is at stake
Beijing eventually relented on its Big Tech crackdown and is likely to do the same with zero-Covid. Just don’t expect much fanfare, or a sudden change

Wang Xiangwei

Published: 9:30am, 7 May 2022

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Since the highly contagious Omicron variant began spreading late last month in Beijing, a dark joke has been making the rounds that the Chinese capital, where the highest echelons of power live, should go through a Shanghai-style hard lockdown – the earlier the better. Only then will China’s leaders be likely to rethink their Covid-19 strategy.

Of course, the municipal government of Beijing is trying hard to avoid the fate of Shanghai, one of China’s most important manufacturing and financial centres, where six weeks of lockdown have caused widespread anger and anxiety about the devastating personal and business costs of the zero-Covid policy.

Since May 1, Beijing has ordered its 22 million residents to go through at least three rounds of mass testing with three more rounds under way. In addition, the authorities have reopened a makeshift hospital with 1,000 beds; banned dining in restaurants, closed gyms and other indoor entertainment venues; instructed schools to go online; and asked residents to show proof of a negative test taken within 48 hours to enter public spaces including supermarkets.

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Residents locked inside homes with wires and bolts due to Covid-19

On Thursday, local authorities placed the city’s Chaoyang district, where many foreign businesses and embassies are located, under a soft lockdown, asking people to work from home and suspending public transport with subway stations closed. People who still needed to visit their offices were encouraged to drive and avoid gatherings.

Despite Beijing registering daily new cases in the double digits, its officials have sounded a grim warning amid the latest outbreak. The unspoken message is that even tougher measures including a hard lockdown for Beijing remain a menacing possibility.

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But China’s leaders are very unlikely to give up on the zero-Covid strategy even if they have first-hard experience of a hard lockdown themselves.

In fact, they may never publicly abandon the policy unless the World Health Organization reclassifies and downgrades the pandemic – even as the rest of the world pivots towards living with the virus. They have bet too much political capital on zero-Covid to back down.

On Thursday night, state media reported that China’s top leaders, the members of the party’s Politburo Standing Committee, had reiterated their support for zero-Covid amid rising domestic and international concerns over its impact on the economy.

That does not mean the country will stick to its current approach forever, however. Officials are most likely to gradually loosen some of the harshest measures to make them more bearable, still under the zero-Covid banner, before easing off on the policy bit by bit.

A medical worker collects a swab sample from a resident inside a closed building during Shanghai’s lockdown. Photo: Reuters

Getting any government to walk back a major policy initiative is difficult and takes time, not least because of worries that doing so could cause embarrassment and dent credibility. This is particularly true for China.

During Xi Jinping’s nearly 10-year reign, he has completely transformed how the country and Communist Party are governed. Officials and party members are exhorted to listen to and follow the top leadership resolutely and without reservation. With the propaganda machine hailing every major decision as “wise” and “brilliant”, perversely it becomes more difficult for the leadership to change horses in midstream.

Take China’s regulatory crackdown on Big Tech. It started in late 2020 when the authorities first warned against the “disorderly expansion of capital”, heralding waves of intense regulatory action targeting sectors from technology to property to gaming to private education.

These intense moves spooked investors and triggered a brutal sell-off of Chinese company stocks on bourses from New York to Hong Kong, wiping out at least several trillion US dollars in market value and precipitating an outflow of capital.

China censors more economists after critical takes on zero-Covid

Over the past year, domestic and international concerns have been building up about the regulatory action’s overkill effects and its impact on the economy.

But Chinese officials did not relent until earlier this year, when they recognised that the nation’s economy faced more headwinds because of new international and domestic uncertainties caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions, as well as the latest Omicron-fuelled outbreaks and lockdowns.

Only at a Politburo meeting to study the role of capital on April 29 – more than 16 months after the regulatory action began – did China’s leaders signal support for the healthy growth of private capital.

Studying the meeting’s readout, one can find hardly any words suggesting that the authorities may ease their regulatory action. But that is what is most likely to happen next. The Post has exclusively reported that regulators plan to meet with Big Tech firms in the coming days, to assure them that the authorities will not pursue aggressive action against them and will instead give them a bigger role in helping prop up the economy.

People wait in line for mass Covid-19 testing in Beijing on May 2, 2022. Photo: Kyodo

The Big Tech saga provides useful context for studying how China’s zero-Covid policy has likewise evolved. Despite the government’s repeated vows to stick with a strategy of virus suppression, there are already signs it has started to ease up.

For instance, Beijing has joined a number of other cities in allowing travellers from overseas to undergo mandatory hotel quarantine for 10 days instead of 14. The same rule also applies to close contacts of the infected.

They need to quarantine for 10 days then spend the next seven days self-isolating at home, instead of the previous minimum requirement of 21 days in government-designated facilities. The duration of the mandatory quarantine is expected to be further shortened once the latest outbreaks are under control.

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Meanwhile, the authorities plan to increase the number of testing facilities until they are likely to be on almost every corner, much like convenience stores. This is because an increasing number of cities, including Beijing, now require people to show proof of a negative test taken within the last 48-72 hours to enter public spaces.

The idea is to not only quickly track and trace the infected but also prepare for further easing. The next step is very likely to be a requirement for people to produce proof of at least two vaccine shots before they are allowed to enter public spaces. This would be aimed at forcing vulnerable groups, including the elderly, to get vaccinated or face the prospect of being confined at home.

The government is also under growing pressure to approve the use of foreign-developed mRNA vaccines as booster jabs, as there is evidence that a mix of these with China’s own ‘inactivated’ vaccines would lead to better protection against the virus.

China has so far withheld approval for foreign mRNA vaccines as it awaits home-grown versions. But this policy could change as the urgency to contain the latest outbreaks gains traction.

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Shanghai residents under Covid lockdown protest against lack of food

It is certain that any easing of the zero-Covid policy will be done with extreme caution ahead of the party’s 20th Congress this autumn, when Xi is expected to seek a third term as party chief. Easing too quickly would not only cause a spike in infections and deaths, but also undermine the party’s claim that zero-Covid showed the superiority of its system of governance over the Western model.

But an easing is inevitable. As one former senior health official put it succinctly behind closed doors, China may succeed once again in stamping out the latest outbreaks, but it cannot win against the virus.

Wang Xiangwei is a former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post. He is now based in Beijing as editorial adviser to the paper