As Asean chair, Indonesia must proactively manage ties between US and China

Indonesia’s success as Asean chair will be assessed partly based on how it manages the strategic implications of the US-China competition on Southeast Asia
But as Jakarta is itself walking a fine line, there is little it can do to ensure the other nine Asean countries will ‘succeed’ in the same struggle

Shafiah F. Muhibat

Published: 9:00am, 28 Jan 2023

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At the start of the G20 Bali summit in November, Indonesia’s foreign ministry said the country would “take advantage of the G20 achievements and follow up on priority issues as chair of Asean”.

The Group of 20 and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are different organisations, but they face the same challenges in current geopolitical dynamics. Southeast Asia is no stranger to strategic competition, but Russia’s war in Ukraine and rising tensions between the United States and China have exposed divisions in the region.

As the US-China rivalry heats up, Asean is in danger of getting caught in the crossfire or being made to “choose”. The bloc, therefore, faces the challenge of maintaining mutually beneficial relations with both.

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Between two superpowers: Indonesia’s position in the US-China rivalry

Indonesia, as the largest country in the region, has been loyal to its “independent and active” foreign policy doctrine, which means it has stayed away from picking sides. So what can we expect of Indonesia’s Asean chairmanship in relation to the US-China rivalry?

During the Cold War, when smaller countries were forced to join either the ideological camps of the United States or Soviet Union, Indonesia’s founding leaders perceived that the newly independent country should not side with either. In terms of foreign policy, this translated into working together with fellow smaller nations in a regional grouping.

Asean is one concrete example of that philosophy. Indonesia initiated the establishment of the bloc with its Southeast Asian counterparts, and was a strong advocate for the first Asean summit in 1976 and the Asean Political Security Community in 2003.

Now, as Indonesia begins its Asean chairmanship, it’s clear that a great power rivalry is once again the predominant challenge in Southeast Asia.

Why the US must engage Indonesia and Asean to restart its ‘pivot to Asia’

Indonesia has had complex relations with both the US and China, with each country playing the role of partner and threat. Some experts have questioned if Indonesia is really neutral, arguing Jakarta is moving closer to Beijing. However, for Indonesia, it has long been a priority to ensure Southeast Asia remains free from the negative impacts of a global rivalry.

In 2018, it called for a collective Asean response to the rivalry in the Indo-Pacific. At the handover of the Asean chairmanship in November, President Joko Widodo emphasised his concerns over the rapid deterioration of Sino-US ties, which has led the world’s two largest economies to vie for influence in the region. He affirmed that “Asean nations should not let the current geopolitical dynamic turn into a new Cold War in our region”.

Indonesia’s success as Asean chair will be assessed partly based on how it manages the strategic implications of US-China competition on Southeast Asia, and partly based on how it manages internal turmoil, including Myanmar and Asean reforms.

However, as Indonesia is itself walking a fine line in maintaining mutually beneficial relations with both world powers, there is very little it can do to ensure the other nine Asean memberrs will “succeed” in the same struggle. All 10 Southeast Asian countries have different relations with Washington and Beijing. Navigating their relationships with China is especially complex with competing geostrategic and geoeconomic priorities.

“As Indonesia begins its Asean chairmanship, it is clear that a great power rivalry is once again the predominant challenge in Southeast Asia,” writes Shafiah F Muhibat. Image: Craig Stephens

Proactive steps

Despite these difficulties, Indonesia and its Asean partners should not be passive in their response to growing and subtle pressures from both nations. It should begin to proactively deflect these pressures.

One way of doing so is for Indonesia to draft a short statement declaring that Asean would like to work simultaneously with the US and China to handle pressing global and regional challenges, like climate change, pandemics, and global financial crises. This statement could be issued at the East Asia Summit, which will feature the participation of both US and Chinese leaders, as well as the leaders of Asean member states.

In theory, the US may not be comfortable with such a trilateral statement. In practice, it may be welcomed. It is well-known that the Biden administration would like to cooperate more with Beijing on major global challenges but is constrained by strong anti-China sentiment domestically within the US.

At the same time, China has also indicated that it favours greater cooperation with the United States. Hence, if Asean were to propose a three-way partnership to solve global challenges, this would give both the US and China a face-saving way of taking part in common endeavours to handle global challenges.

“Indonesia and its Asean partners should not be passive in response to growing and subtle pressures from both nations,” writes Shafiah F Muhibat. Photo: AP

If successful, it would demonstrate Asean’s ability to set the agenda, achieve consensus on solutions, and bring countries together. Doing so would demonstrate that the bloc remains and continues to be the essential key element in the broader regional architecture of Southeast Asia.

Can Indonesia see this through as chair? It’s a tall order. If Indonesia were to push for it, it would have to get the support of the nine other Asean members and the US and China. This can be done.

Dr Shafiah F Muhibat is the Deputy Executive Director for Research at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Indonesia. This article was first published on the website of the Asian Peace Programme (APP), an initiative to promote peace in Asia housed in the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore.

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