Malaysia’s Anwar has to navigate dangerous undercurrents ahead of key state elections

PM Anwar has his work cut out to improve his coalition’s Malay vote share in the coming state polls, with Selangor and Negeri Sembilan marked as key battlegrounds
Deputy PM Zahid and jailed ex-leader Najib are among other headaches for Anwar, whose support may erode if Umno becomes an electoral liability during the elections

Khairy Jamaluddin

Published: 2:30pm, 14 Apr 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

Having consolidated his position as Malaysia’s prime minister with the passing of his maiden budget in parliament, Anwar Ibrahim now has an added spring in his step following a well-received visit to China.

While he failed to secure meetings with top Saudi Arabian leaders on an earlier trip, he delivered in China. In addition to meetings with President Xi Jinping and new Premier Li Qiang, Anwar secured 170 billion ringgit (US$38.6 billion) worth of investment deals. In essence, he was able to achieve in a single visit more than ex-leader Najib Razak, who was lauded for upgrading bilateral relations with China.

With some deliverables on the table, Anwar is now less worried about his administration’s viability. He is now focused on governing and crafting a narrative for Malaysia’s place in the world at a time of geopolitical tensions. Anwar has also spent the fasting month of Ramadan running a busy schedule, breaking fast with different segments of society every night.

Anwar’s first 100 days: the hits, misses and challenges ahead for Malaysia’s PM

Yet, dangerous undercurrents lurk below the calm waters. In a few months, Malaysia will head to a set of state-level elections. Six states are up for grabs – three held by Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition and three by the Islamic party, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), which is part of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) opposition coalition. The states concerned – Kedah, Terengganu, Kelantan, Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan – are a cross-section of Malaysia’s diversity. In other words, the results will be representative of what the country thinks – at least on the peninsula.

These elections will lay bare Anwar’s greatest challenge – increasing his coalition’s vote share on the Malay ground.

With PH’s Malay vote share during last year’s polls estimated to be less than 15 per cent, it will be impossible for Anwar to secure any of the northern states, so he will have to keep an eye on his own strongholds, especially Selangor.

PN has also borrowed a leaf from Anwar’s playbook while in opposition. Without the need to carry the hard realities of being in government, it is championing populist causes such as pushing for Malaysians to be allowed to make withdrawals from their pension accounts.

Malaysia’s deputy prime minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. Photo: Reuters

Anwar must also navigate these waters with a deadweight tied to his legs in the form of Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, his tainted deputy prime minister and partner in the coalition government. Zahid is president of the United Malays National Organisation (Umno), the leading party in the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition.

Since returning unopposed in Umno’s internal election, Zahid has wasted no time in consolidating his position in the party and in government.

Zahid has generously doled out senior board-level appointments in statutory bodies and government-linked companies to supporters. He also engineered a takeover of the Melaka state government by replacing the chief minister and managed to yet again postpone his corruption trial, which was meant to resume this week. He is trying to convince the public prosecutor to drop the charges altogether.

Anwar’s political capital is taking a hit thanks to Zahid’s controversial reputation and the impression that he is rewarding his supporters and cronies unchecked. Of greater concern to Anwar is if Umno becomes an electoral liability during the state polls.

Malaysia’s former prime minister Najib Razak (centre) with his supporters outside the Federal Court in Putrajaya in August 2022. Photo: EPA-EFE

Anwar’s Umno headache extends to the party’s incarcerated éminence grise, Najib. After having failed to overturn his conviction, Najib must either serve his 12-year term or seek a royal pardon. Although pardons have been given in the past to convicted politicians, including Anwar, this is by no means assured given the scale and nature of Najib’s crimes.

Najib’s supporters, which make up at least half of Umno’s ruling council, have launched a petition to support his pardon and also leaked investigation documents against the trial judge who convicted him. Although the Malaysian judiciary has not established any wrongdoing on the judge’s part, Najib’s supporters believe the smear campaign will strengthen his application for a pardon. Their increasing agitation may have an impact on Zahid’s hold on the party. In light of this, Zahid has instructed Umno to formally petition the king for Najib’s pardon. Anwar’s support may well erode if he is unable to defend the judiciary against Najib and Umno’s attacks.

These undercurrents will affect the state elections. Given the results will not affect his coalition in parliament, a collapse of his administration would not necessarily follow. However, losing Selangor or Negeri Sembilan would be a tremendous setback for Anwar. PN has identified these two states as key battlegrounds. If it captures these two states and sustains the momentum for a couple of years, it would be in a good position to score an outright victory come the next general election.

Malaysia’s jailed ex-PM Najib is seeking a royal pardon. What happens next?

Luckily for Anwar, things in these two states do not look grim, at least on paper. A quick analysis of the results from the parliamentary elections and transposing them onto corresponding state seats show an uphill struggle for PN in these two states. These rough calculations show that based on the general election results, PN would bag two state seats in Negeri Sembilan, with the rest going to PH (18) and BN (16). In Selangor, PN would fare slightly better with 12 seats, but this is still short of PH’s 41 seats.

Malaysia’s political landscape has changed significantly since November. But PN’s chances can be boosted if it secures prominent and popular candidates to run in the state elections. Furthermore, the political undercurrents currently being felt in Malaysia may gain strength and threaten Anwar’s stability if he and his allies cannot successfully navigate through them.

Khairy Jamaluddin is a Visiting Senior Fellow at ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute. Previously, he served as Minister at Malaysia’s ministries of Youth and Sports, Science and Technology, and Health. He was also the Coordinating Minister for the Covid-19 Immunisation Programme. This article was first published in ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute’s commentary site Fulcrum.sg.