Myanmar bloodshed grows, as Ukraine war shifts the world’s attention
- The Ukraine war pushed Myanmar down the list of international concerns, worsening cracks among global powers that would likely be united on the worsening situation
- Myanmar has witnessed killings by the military almost daily since generals seized control of the country in 2021
More than two years on from a coup that installed military rule in the Southeast Asian country, pro-democracy protesters say they have yet to receive an adequate answer.
Such attacks are not uncommon, if not usually so deadly. The day before the Sagaing massacre, the Myanmar air force dropped bombs in Falam, Chin State, killing 11 people. In fact, since civil war broke out, 3,240 civilians and pro-democracy activists have been killed, according to the human rights group Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. In response, a fierce resistance movement has emerged, with an estimated 65,000 fighters using ambushes and other guerilla tactics against military targets.
As a scholar on Myanmar’s history, I would argue that the escalating violence can be attributed to two main factors, one internal and one external: a miscalculation by the military over the resistance of Myanmar’s people, and ambivalence from the international community.
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From coup to civil war
But there are, I believe, reasons to suggest that the Myanmar military grossly miscalculated the timing of the coup, and underestimated the sentiment of a people unwilling to give up the freedom and prosperity they experienced under democracy.
The Myanmar military similarly promised “free and fair elections” further down the line after its coup.
Unlike in Thailand, people in Myanmar – especially younger generations that came of age in the democratic decade after 2010 – fiercely resisted the army’s takeover and were sceptical of claims that it would restore democracy.
After peaceful protests following the coup were met with live ammunition, pro-democracy activists turned to armed resistance.
In the years since, many young people have undergone military training – often by armed ethnic groups that already existed along the country’s borders – and fought back under the umbrella resistance group, People’s Defense Forces.
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The growing instability, Min Aung Hlaing said, meant that promised elections – after which the military was to hand over power to a civilian government – cannot be scheduled.
Uniting around a common enemy
Myanmar’s military leaders have vowed to annihilate resistance groups. Yet there are reasons to believe that the resistance is only getting stronger.
Despite slow initial progress to show a common front, the Bamar majority and minority ethic groups such as Karen, Chin, Kachin, Rakhine and Karenni appear to be unifying against military rule. And resistance fighters have widespread support throughout the country.
A lot will now depend on whether Myanmar soldiers lose the will to fight. Already there are signs of strain. The military is reportedly facing an acute shortage of new recruits, resulting in women being trained to fight in combat. People in the Bamar heartlands, including Sagaing where the April 11 massacre occurred, are refusing to let their sons join the Myanmar army.
In such circumstances, the Myanmar army is increasingly relying on guns and bombs rather than troop numbers.
But the longer the resistance lasts, the more humiliating it will be for a junta that has upped its annual spending on the military to an estimated US$2.7 billion – more than 25 per cent of the national budget – largely to suppress its own population.
Leaving the oil and gas taps running
These internal dynamics have taken place largely in the absence of intense scrutiny from the international community, pro-democracy activists say.
Moreover, sanctions have yet to bite Myanmar’s energy sector. Activist group Justice for Myanmar has identified 22 oil and gas companies from countries including the US that have continued to provide revenue to Myanmar’s generals during the civil war. Indeed, US oil companies including Chevron lobbied hard against broad sanctions against the Myanmar military.
The failure to shut off oil revenue allows Myanmar’s generals – for whom oil and gas is a major revenue source – to fund the military.
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To many within the resistance movement, the reluctance of the international community to exert more pressure on the country’s military looks like global collusion. It also has the potential to prolong the violence by funding the military’s campaign.
Beware the tiger’s tail
A well-known Myanmar phrase warns against the dangers of “catching hold of a tiger’s tail” – once you do so there is no turning back; let go and you will be killed.
It aptly sums up the position now for Myanmar’s military rulers and the resistance fighters being drawn deeper into conflict with each atrocity. They are fighting for the past, present and the future and can’t let go now.