Cyclone Mocha disaster in Myanmar a wake-up call for Asean, world to take climate security seriously

Climate change is a security issue with profound implications for war and peace, with an all-hands-on deck approach needed
Helping vulnerable states such as Myanmar requires a culture and habit of cooperation among Asean countries and major powers along with respecting state sovereignty

Sarang Shidore

Published: 2:00pm, 18 May 2023

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Coming on the heels of a brutal heatwave in Southeast Asia is Cyclone Mocha, among the biggest in the region’s history. The storm has left a trail of destruction across Myanmar’s coastal Rakhine state.

But even as we mourn the humanitarian tragedy, we must come to grips with the fact that climate change is a security issue, with profound implications for war and peace. The way to deal with grave challenges such as climate security is to have an all-hands-on-deck approach regardless of geopolitical rivalries.

The Bay of Bengal region straddles South and Southeast Asia and is enormously vulnerable to climate change-fuelled natural hazards, particularly cyclones, floods, and sea level rise.

But the region’s pre-existing political fragility means that these hazards could potentially worsen social fault lines and enhance conflict. Such conflict can be induced through various pathways, such as hostile responses to migrants and refugees, widening of existing fault lines over scarce resources in communities, or states of emergency that may lead to harsh crackdowns and alienate citizens from their government.

People move from their homes to the nearest cyclone shelter at Shah Porir Dwip during the landfall of Cyclone Mocha in Teknaf, Bangladesh, on Sunday. Photo: Reuters

A recent study on the climate-conflict nexus in the Bay of Bengal region published by the Center for Preventive Action at the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington identifies a zone of high climate-conflict risk spanning northeastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Here, the greatest climate vulnerability coincides with the highest risks of conflict. The CFR report lays out four climate-conflict scenarios in the Bay of Bengal region, the most dangerous of which is a climate shock or a more gradual impact that further accelerates Myanmar’s fragmentation.

But even if climate change did not exist, Myanmar would be in trouble. Topping the list of its woes is a horrific civil war, with perhaps as much as half of its territory currently not under the control of its government.

The country’s wide diversity, which could otherwise be a source of strength, is a major weakness as social fault lines have deepened. Rakhine province saw a major campaign of expulsion of its Rohingya minority in 2017, about a million of whom now are in rickety refugee camps in southeastern Bangladesh, close to the Myanmar border. (Mercifully, the cyclone appears to have mostly spared these camps.) Rakhine’s insurgent Arakan army, demanding deep autonomy, is in episodic battles with the military. And Myanmar is among Southeast Asia’s poorest states, officially classified as a “Least Developed Country” by the United Nations.

Deadly Cyclone Mocha thrashes Myanmar, Bangladesh – at least 3 dead

Rakhine province is also a site of a geopolitical contest between India and China. Both are involved in major infrastructure projects there. The United States is also present in the overall region as a major power with deep ties to India, Bangladesh, and most Asean states. Myanmar is an Asean member. The military takeover and the civil war have presented the organisation with its biggest challenge in decades.

But there is a right way and a wrong way to deal with climate security challenges such as Myanmar. The wrong way is coercive interventionism. This is what some international actors, led by France, threatened to do under the questionable “Responsibility to Protect” (R2P) doctrine during a previous such disaster, the 2008 Cyclone Nargis which killed about 140,000 Myanmar nationals. Other voices refrained from invoking R2P but demanded coercive diplomacy and other forms of pressure.

Naypyidaw was falling well short in taking action to save lives and was resisting many foreign aid agencies from operating in the country. However, circumventing the junta to deliver aid directly using military airdrops – among the suggested actions under R2P – would only have made the situation worse by triggering nationalist resistance, major opposition from regional states, and worsening Myanmar’s fragility in the longer run.

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Deadly Cyclone Mocha slams Myanmar and Bangladesh, leaving at least 3 dead

R2P is not currently in vogue in the great power competition-focused discourse in Washington. But as climate impacts worsen, it could return as a part of such a competition – with intervention advocated in Global South states deemed to be moving too close to Russia or China.

Using humanitarian crises to solidify bloc-building against geopolitical adversaries is also not helpful. This was a by-product of the relief effort in the wake of the Asian tsunami of 2004, which Washington used as an opportunity to greatly increase military interoperability with some regional states.

Overcoming grave challenges such as climate insecurity needs an all-hands-on-deck approach. Asia is a vast and increasingly integrated space in which all its states along with a key external power, the US, have a stake. Hostile US-China relations may prevent the two great powers from working too closely together, but if they want to cooperate, surely the best place to start is humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

Local residents check the damage after Cyclone Mocha crashed ashore, in Kyauktaw in Myanmars Rakhine state on Sunday. Photo: AFP

As the CFR report stresses, institutions at national, regional, and pan-Asian levels need strengthening. At the national level, Bangladesh’s remarkable success in disaster preparedness can be a model. At the regional level, Asean’s AHA Center has lessons for other organisations such as the Bay of Bengal’s BIMSTEC. At the pan-Asian level, the Changi Regional HADR Coordination Center includes the participation of both the US and China.

A key hallmark of the Asean way is placing state sovereignty at the core of its work. This has its critics. But, during the Nargis episode, Myanmar was much more open to working with Asean rather than Western states, as the generals did not fear a Trojan horse aimed at subverting the regime. If we are to achieve practical solutions in a world of diverse political systems and increasing multipolarity, sovereignty cannot be callously discarded.

Asean push for Myanmar peace continues as it ropes in China, India, Japan

All Asean states believe that sovereignty must be protected. However, sovereignty does not mean non-cooperation in humanitarian areas. A culture and habit of cooperation should be created among Asean countries and major powers including the United States, China and India, which goes hand in hand with respecting state sovereignty.

Institutions that develop deep habits of voluntary cooperation, transmitting best practices, and learning from bottom-up solutions can aim to bridge some of the drawbacks of centering sovereignty. The worsening climate security challenge demands nothing less.

Sarang Shidore is Director of Studies and Senior Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute. This article was first published on the website of the Asian Peace Programme, an initiative to promote peace in Asia housed in the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore.

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