Megawati and Jokowi are from the same party but it is apparent that they have differing views on their preferred candidate. Jokowi’s speech on May 14 during the Musyawarah Rakyat (Musra, or people’s discussion) organised by his supporters suggests that he does not necessarily support Ganjar.

The Musra poll was conducted in 30 provinces to informally collect information on the choices of volunteers and the public on their preferred candidates. The results showed Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar as the two preferred candidates. The indeterminate results might in turn reflect Jokowi’s ambiguous attitude towards both.

The fieriness of Jokowi’s speech on May 14 was unusual. He urged his supporters to exercise patience and refrain from rushing to pick a candidate he favoured. He stated that he would quietly tell parties who he would support for the February 2024 election.

This statement has created some ruckus since his own party, the PDI-P, had already officially declared Ganjar as its preferred candidate. The inclusion of Prabowo and Golkar chair Airlangga Hartarto with Ganjar on the May 14 Musra’s recommended list of possible presidential candidates suggests that Jokowi still has not decided who he will support.

Jokowi has stated repeatedly that the next elected president must be courageous and firm. A 2021 poll by Indikator revealed a majority of respondents who cited assertiveness as an essential quality for a presidential candidate would have voted for Prabowo at that time.

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In his May 14 speech, Jokowi stated that leaders must hear the voice of the people and not be influenced by elites. Some analysts believe Jokowi’s statement was directed at Ganjar, who is rumoured to have signed a “political contract” with Megawati. Even though this claim has been reported by limited circles, there is talk that Ganjar must allow Megawati to choose his vice-presidential running mate and for the PDI-P to decide the composition of Ganjar’s cabinet. Ganjar has denied these rumours.

For his part, Jokowi is said to be less enthusiastic about endorsing Ganjar because he was not involved in PDI-P’s decision-making process.

Reportedly, it was just after the president arrived in Solo, in Central Java, for an unrelated trip that Jokowi was told PDI-P would declare its support for Ganjar’s presidential election candidacy in Bogor, West Java. While Jokowi attended the nomination event, his original itinerary suggests that he might not have been told in advance and may have been excluded from the PDI-P’s inner-circle deliberations.

Jokowi could be withholding his explicit endorsement for any one candidate to improve his bargaining position, especially vis-à-vis the PDI-P.

However, as is typical of Jokowi, he has not burned his bridges with Ganjar. In his May 14 speech, Jokowi also emphasised that a leader must be close to the people. Ganjar, according to Indikator’s surveys, is seen as a man of the merakyat (people). Jokowi is likely to bide his time and balance his support for Ganjar and Prabowo.

In this author’s view, Jokowi has implemented this strategy so that Prabowo and Ganjar would clear the presidential election’s first round and go head-to-head in a second round. For months, various credible polls have indicated that none of the three leading candidates – Prabowo, Ganjar and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan – will garner more than 50 per cent of the national vote.

By touting Ganjar or Prabowo as a possible successor, Jokowi might be hoping that both would easily advance to the run-off. Often in third place in recent polls, Anies, who is running on a campaign platform as the candidate of change and is clearly Jokowi’s least favoured, is expected to lose a three-way race.

Given his huge popularity, Jokowi’s clear endorsement of either Ganjar or Prabowo would certainly influence the election outcome. Two prominent survey organisations, LSI and SMRC, recently reported that public approval of Jokowi has reached 82 per cent.

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Jokowi has a personal stake in the outcome of the election and would like to ensure that his successor comes from his political camp. This will secure his presidential legacy while giving him political protection when he steps down in October 2024.

Unlike his predecessors, who had party strongholds, Jokowi has no direct control of any political party.

As a result, he could be withholding his explicit endorsement for any one candidate to improve his bargaining position, especially vis-à-vis the PDI-P. Jokowi’s strength lies in his strong supporter and volunteer networks. Even if he cannot run for a third presidential term, these networks in lieu of a party machinery may represent Jokowi’s indirect support, and even provide concrete votes for the person he eventually anoints.