As I see it | Will China be ‘offended’ by Asean openly backing heightened US security presence in the region? Not really

Southeast Asian countries privately prefer expanded Western military footprint in the region and are hesitant to publicly air their views to avoid ruffling Beijing’s feathers

But even if they let their thoughts out in the open, China’s reaction is likely to be less harsh as it understands the rationale behind Asean’s hedging strategy

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Asean leaders hold hands for a group photo during a summit in Labuan Bajo, Indonesia, on May 11. Photo: AP

Published: 10:30am, 11 Aug 2023

Southeast Asian countries are increasingly opting to toe the let us not offend China line by not stating what in the open what they feel in private. That was the impression I got during my recent conversations with analysts on two separate topics.

On Nato expanding its presence in Asia-Pacific, one observer said that politicians in Southeast Asia publicly voiced concerns about the European security alliance and the US strengthening their presence in the region.

This is done so as to “ensure that China is not offended”, he said, but noted that privately, these same countries welcome Nato, Washington and other multilateral institutions’ involvement in the region.

When discussing the latest Japan’s defence white paper which labelled Beijing as the nation’s “greatest strategic challenge”, a Southeast Asian analyst said that countries in the region are concerned about how Tokyo is reacting militarily to China’s historic rise.

But behind closed doors, the analyst said that regional elites understand and even support Japan’s more muscular policies towards China, given their experience with Beijing’s maritime expansion.

This is especially so in countries like Vietnam and the Philippines which for years have had skirmishes with Chinese vessels in the disputed South China Sea.