Thaksin’s back, but Thailand’s anti-democratic forces are as strong as ever
- Pheu Thai has its PM in Srettha Thavisin, but the betrayal of Move Forward Party voters – and its own supporters – could cost it at the next election
- There’s little doubt Thaksin, once free, will be the key figure operating behind the scenes – which could lead to a tussle with Srettha for influence
There are now many questions about what this blockbuster day for Thai politics means for the country’s future – and Thai democracy.
Thaksin return may bring badly needed stability to Thailand
Thaksin became prime minister in 2001 after a thumping election win and remained the country’s most popular politician, even through his long years of exile.
Thaksin’s extraordinary popularity as prime minister challenged the primacy of the monarchy and the military in Thailand. This essentially led to a decade of protests and conflict between the so-called red shirts in Thai society, who supported Thaksin, and the “yellow shirts” who supported the monarchy and military elites.
Having consistently opposed the military, Pheu Thai made a commitment before this year’s election not to form a coalition with the military-aligned parties.
The party nominated its own prime ministerial candidate, Srettha, a wealthy property developer and political newcomer, and formed a new coalition with two military-aligned parties, the Palang Pracharath Party and Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party, and a range of others. This gave Srettha the support he needed from the military-appointed senators to win the prime ministership.
Both Move Forward and Pheu Thai had been vocal critics of the former military-led government.
However, the two parties have different stances on one main issue: Thailand’s strict lèse-majesté law, which punishes anyone who criticises the king or other senior royals with up to 15 years in prison. Move Forward pledged to reform it, while Pheu Thai committed not to change it.
This difference was likely a key determinant in Move Forward’s electoral victory, but also the reason the military and conservative parties have now been willing to support Pheu Thai.
The only party to vote against Srettha in significant numbers in the parliamentary election was Move Forward and its 149 MPs.
Chaithawat Tulathon, the secretary general of Move Forward, said the party opposed the new coalition because it refused to be complicit in returning military-aligned parties to government, even one led by Pheu Thai. He argued this would perpetuate the notion that Thailand’s “ultimate power” belonged in the unelected Senate rather than in the hands of the people.
It’s no coincidence that Thaksin arrived on the day his party returned to power, and the foundations are already being set for his early release.
After a medical check-up, the Department of Corrections said Thaksin had five medical conditions, including an ischemic heart muscle, chronic pulmonary inflammation, high blood pressure, degenerated spine and abnormal posture.
There are numerous routes for Thaksin to be released from prison, but the most obvious one, due to his age of 74 and these reported health conditions, is on medical grounds.
Despite Thaksin’s protestations over almost two decades that he did not want to return to politics, there is little doubt he will be the key figure operating behind the scenes in the Pheu Thai party, and therefore the government.
As such, we may see a tussle between Srettha and Thaksin for influence in the party. Srettha may very well attempt to project the image that he is his own man and not beholden to anyone.
The next election, despite being away for years, could also be fraught for Pheu Thai. The party has not only betrayed Move Forward voters with its actions this week, it has also betrayed its own supporters who believed its commitment to keep the military-aligned parties out of power.
If Pheu Thai can hold the unwieldy 11-party coalition together for the next four years, however, it has plenty of time to convince voters to stick with it at the next election. It may also deliver enough sweeteners to remain in power.
Once again, the anti-democratic forces within Thailand’s elites have stifled the will of the people, and we may be entering another volatile era in Thai politics.