Asian AngleAsean’s side deals in Myanmar risk missing where the power truly lies

As Asean foreign ministers prepare to meet in Manila from July 21-22, a quiet but significant shift is under way in the bloc’s approach to Myanmar.

Although the Association of Southeast Asian Nations remains formally committed to the “five-point consensus”, several member states appear to be reconsidering the collective pressure strategy adopted since the 2021 coup.

In May, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan travelled to Myanmar for talks with junta-appointed Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe, urging an extension of the military’s temporary ceasefire and presenting engagement as a pathway towards de-escalation and dialogue.

Leo Herrera-Lim, the Philippine undersecretary for foreign policy and leader for Asean senior officials’ meetings, recently co-chaired consultations in Naypyidaw. Indonesia’s foreign minister visited on June 8 and Laos’ did the same a few days later. Thailand, meanwhile, has long advocated a more pragmatic approach towards Myanmar’s military rulers.

This steady trickle of bilateral outreach may yet carve a path for recalibrated regional relations with Naypyidaw. Resigned to the reality that the five-point consensus will remain a matter of words rather than deeds – at least without a new tactical approach – some Asean foreign ministers are now open to including a virtual seat for Myanmar’s highly contested and dubiously credentialed new government in coming talks.