Could Turkey’s stance on China, Sweden, Israel, soften with earthquake ‘disaster diplomacy’?

Hopes are rising that international humanitarian response to Turkey-Syria earthquake will improve goodwill between Ankara and its rivals

But it is harder to predict what lies ahead in terms of ties between Turkey’s Erdogan and Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, analysts say, amid military conflicts in region

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Earthquake survivors gather round a bonfire in Turkey. Might the international response to the massive tragedy improve relations between governments? Photo: AFP

Published: 5:35pm, 10 Feb 2023

As rescue crews desperately search for the last survivors of Turkey’s twin earthquakes, hopes are growing that the generous international humanitarian response will spur on diplomatic reconciliation between Ankara, its rivals in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, and its Nato partners.

Within hours of the massive tremblers, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis set aside his tense personal relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to offer him immediate help, in their first conversation in several months.

Just six months after Turkey and Israel restored full diplomatic relations following a decade of public sniping between Erdogan and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli volunteers were among the first to land on Tuesday at Gaziantep airport – where the airliner which carried them was parked next to a military plane from arch-enemy Iran.

The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which fought bitter diplomatic and proxy wars with Turkey for influence in the Middle East and North Africa until their rapprochement in 2020, have opened their cheque books, launched public donation campaigns, and established air bridges to ensure the consistent flow of supplies to the earthquake-struck areas of Turkey and neighbouring Syria.

Despite the outpouring of genuine public sympathy for the thousands of victims of the earthquakes, governments “tend to not be altruistic or guided by emotions in foreign policy decision making”, said Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington-based political risk consultancy.

Instead, the perceived national interests of countries “help explain their responses to this earthquake”, he added.