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Aidan Jones

In Thaksin Shinawatra’s hometown outside Chiang Mai, neighbours say they hope the royal pardon gifted to the tycoon offers Thailand’s most loved – and quite possibly, most loathed – politician a chance to exit the kingdom’s bear-pit politics ahead of his 77th birthday.
But after eight months in jail, a coup against his government, a battery of legal cases, threats to his family, assets – and even his life – those hitched to the Shinawatra bandwagon since Thaksin won his first election in 2001 doubt he is destined for the political sunset just yet.
“He deserves to rest after fighting all this time. I really hope he does,” said Non, a 69-year-old resident of Thaksin’s home district of San Kamphaeng, a 30-minute drive from Chiang Mai in northern Thailand.
“But I don’t think he can leave politics behind,” he said, requesting to give only one name.


On June 3, Thaksin received a royal pardon after his release on parole from a Bangkok jail.
He had served eight months for an old abuse of power conviction after returning in 2023 under an apparent deal that initially saw him admitted to a police hospital – instead of prison – in exchange for bringing Pheu Thai party into government with his former conservative enemies.
That turnaround came as a young, progressive reform party won the election, ripping up the old assumption of Thai politics: that the Shinawatras always come first in the polls.
But the deal eventually crumbled and Thaksin was belatedly sent to jail last September to serve one year after the Supreme Court found he had falsely spent his sentence in hospital.
On Thaksin’s release, Pheu Thai put distance between its billionaire founder and the party’s future direction.
“As for whether he will be involved with the party or not, that issue is no longer relevant,” Julapun Amornvivat, Pheu Thai party leader, told reporters a day after his release.
“The question of him interfering in or being involved in the party’s administration has gone beyond that point. There should no longer be any questions about it.”

Yet speculation over Thaksin’s next moves has refused to die.
That is because the policeman turned billionaire telecommunications tycoon has been at the centre of Thai politics for a generation.
He seized the political stage with his 2001 landslide election win as a Thai public anxious about economic malaise backed his pro-poor and pro-investment policies. He repeated the trick five years later, becoming the only Thai prime minister to win back-to-back elections, or serve a full term in a country where coups decide the balance of power.
But in 2006, the army toppled his government as the conservative elite grew uneasy with Thaksin’s pull with the public.
A two-decade struggle for dominance followed. Thaksin was driven into self-exile for 15 years to avoid corruption convictions he had always said were politically motivated, while the administration of his sister Yingluck was struck down by another coup in 2014. She remains overseas to avoid jail.
Meanwhile, his political magic has also waned with the voters, even in his home district San Kamphaeng, where most seats went to the progressive People’s Party at the last election.
The People’s Party is now seen as the beacon for greater democracy.

“He is no longer a political magnet,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University.
“But he will still be behind the scenes. He may stay low profile but take an active role visible to the public or not. With Yingluck not back in the country, he will keep doing it for the family. If she returns safely, that might be the time he leaves.”
Thaksin’s daughter, former prime minister Paetongtarn, still helms Pheu Thai while his nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat is deputy leader in the government of Anutin Charnvirakul, whose Bhumjaithai Party ruptured the last coalition as it sought power on its own terms.
As Paetongtarn’s government imploded, Anutin walked over the wreckage to win a fresh election in February this year, relegating Pheu Thai to third place.
That was the party’s worst result in its history and a blow to Thaksin’s leverage with the establishment, as he no longer carried the nation’s public with him.
“I think Thaksin underestimated the distrust or dislike that the Thai elite have against him,” said Khemthong Tonsakulrungruang, a law academic and constitutional expert at Chulalongkorn University.

But in a political career that has survived endless twists and turns, few believe Thaksin will simply exit the stage for good.
“Thaksin is not going to disappear. The Thaksin brand still resonates well with a sizeable number of voters: the rural poor in the upper north and northeast of Thailand,” said Paul Chambers, a visiting academic at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
But taking a back seat in Pheu Thai could help him “in appeasing the elite”, Chambers said. “With Thaksin no longer actively leading Pheu Thai, Pheu Thai and Thaksin may be allowed to continue playing politics in Thailand.”
Without Thaksin, however, the family’s political brand is short of star power.
Paetongtarn faces legal troubles of her own, while Yodchanan is still building a public profile, potentially with the next election in mind.
But as Thaksin nears his 77th birthday later this month, experts are taking stock of the achievements of a Thai political titan who steered the country through muddy waters following the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, as well as his missteps and frequent overreach of power.
“His legacy really depends on who you talk to,” Khemthong said.
“The older generation might remember him for his political success, but also a betrayal that will mark his legacy,” he added, referring to the back-room deal that brought him back in 2023.


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Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra after his release from Klong Prem Central Prison in Bangkok on May 11. Photo: AFP

Supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra gather in front of the Supreme Court in Bangkok in September 2025. Photo: Kyodo

Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra hugs his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra upon his release at Klong Prem Central Prison in Bangkok on May 11. Photo: AFP

Yodchanan Wongsawat during a campaign rally in Bangkok, Thailand, in February. Photo: EPA

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul welcomes Vietnam’s President To Lam to Bangkok’s Government House complex on May 28. Photo: Sopa Images/Zuma Press Wire/dpa

Anutin Charnvirakul smiles after playing a traditional Vietnamese “t’rung” xylophone at a state banquet in Hanoi on Monday in this still from a social media video. Photo: Facebook

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Staff attend to a handbag concession at a shopping centre in Bangkok last month. Thailand expects to record economic growth of around 2 per cent this year. Photo: EPA

Vietnam’s President To Lam and Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul clap next to a logo celebrating the 50th anniversary of the two countries’ diplomatic relations in Bangkok on May 28. Photo: EPA

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Thailand’s ex-PM Thaksin gets royal pardon after release on parole

Ex-Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra hugs his daughter and former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra after being released from prison on parole at Klong Prem Central Prison in Bangkok last month. Photo: EPA

Thailand’s sacked prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra walks out after visiting her father, ex-Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, at Klong Prem Central Prison in Bangkok last September. Photo: AFP

Ex-prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra arrives at the Supreme Court to attend a trial on a charge of criminal negligence in Bangkok in 2017. Photo: AP

Thailand’s Thaksin steps out of jail into landscape where old rivals hold sway

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra smiles as he walks out from Klong Prem Central Prison in Bangkok on Monday. Photo: AP

Thaksin Shinawatra hugs his daughters, Paetongtarn Shinawatra (left) and Pintongtha Kunakornwong, following his release on parole on Monday. Photo: Reuters 

Thaksin Shinawatra shakes hands with his supporters from inside a car after he is released from prison on Monday. Photo: AP

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While the former PM is ‘no longer a political magnet’, analysts say he will still be behind the scenes as Pheu Thai tries to make a comeback


While the former PM is ‘no longer a political magnet’, analysts say he will still be behind the scenes as Pheu Thai tries to make a comeback.


Thailand’s Thaksin is out of jail, but can he ‘leave politics behind’?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}While the former PM is ‘no longer a political magnet’, analysts say he will still be behind the scenes as Pheu Thai tries to make a comeback

While the former PM is ‘no longer a political magnet’, analysts say he will still be behind the scenes as Pheu Thai tries to make a comeback