Malaysia by-election: a win for Barisan Nasional – and racial politics
- Pakatan Harapan’s loss of Semenyih, a seat it flipped in May general election, shows dissatisfaction with slow progress on pre-election promises, experts say
- It also underlines the ongoing influence of race-based politics
On Saturday, after a 14-day campaign period, Barisan Nasional’s candidate – Zakaria Hanafi of the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) – won the seat for Semenyih, a state constituency in Selangor, by 1,914 votes.
He beat the Pakatan Harapan candidate – Muhammad Aiman Zanali of the Malaysian United Indigenous Party (Bersatu) – and two independents.
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His victory meant Semenyih, about 20km from Kuala Lumpur, became the first constituency to have been flipped by the Barisan Nasional since the Pakatan Harapan toppled it from power in May after more than six decades of uninterrupted rule.
“Pakatan Harapan is perceived to be less sensitive to the daily needs of the people,” said Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi, a political analyst at University Malaya’s Institute of Malay Studies. “This is a response to Pakatan failing to live up to pre-election promises and its current low performance, with little consensus between [its component parties].”
He said the result also showed multi-ethnic Malaysia was not ready to let go of race-based communal politics, despite Pakatan Harapan’s calls for a Malaysia that is not divided along racial lines.
“The reality is that politics based on ethnicity and religion is the core of Malaysia’s political foundation.”
Umno and its unofficial ally PAS (the Islamic Party of Malaysia) had regrouped since the election, concentrating their efforts on wooing Malays, the country’s majority ethnic group, and this was what had “made up the minds of voters in Semenyih”, he said.
Analyst Dr Wong Chin Huat, of state-linked think tank the Penang Institute, said the partnership of Umno and PAS was an existential threat to Pakatan Harapan, as if the competition became to be about which party was more pro-Malay, “by default, the multi-ethnic Pakatan will be caught in between”.
“In [the last elections], Barisan and PAS won a total of 46.43 per cent of votes, while Pakatan Harapan won with 50.76 per cent. In the by-election, Barisan backed by PAS won 50.44 per cent while Pakatan won only 45.56 per cent. Once we see Barisan and PAS as a camp, it is … a swing of five per cent,” he said.
In May, the Barisan Nasional lost the seat to Pakatan Harapan’s Bakhtiar Mohd Nor, who won with a majority of almost 9,000 votes. His death in January from a heart attack prompted the by-election.
Although this is not Barisan’s first post-election victory (it retained the seat of Cameron Highlands in another by-election in January), observers say Semenyih is one of the most telling by-elections since the Pakatan Harapan took over.
Although Selangor, Malaysia’s wealthiest state, has been out of Barisan Nasional hands since 2008, there are still pockets of remaining support. Until May, Semenyih had been one such pocket.
Pakatan Harapan sources said the campaign was poorly managed, and that Bersatu – Mahathir’s party and the only non-multiracial party in the alliance – had fielded a weak candidate.
“He had no charisma, no real attachment to the people,” said a party worker, criticising Aiman for only releasing his election manifesto a few days before polling.
Although Pakatan Harapan managed to retain most of the ethnic Indian and Chinese vote – the other two main racial groups in Malaysia – it yielded the Malay vote, which is about 68 per cent of the constituency.
“It says a lot about the disenchantment of the voters with Pakatan, and it is nothing short of amazing that the coalition managed to fumble so badly so quickly,” said Shahril Hamdan, Umno Youth’s vice-chief. “This result is an indictment of the entire 10 months they’ve been in power as the same people who brought them to power are voting against them now.”
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Pakatan Harapan Vice-President Azmin Ali acknowledged the shortcomings of both the alliance and the campaign, saying that the loss was “a wake-up call”.
“In light of the outcomes in Semenyih and Cameron Highlands, Pakatan Harapan needs to take heed of the signals sent by voters and we must deeply reflect on our actions moving forward. We are cognisant of the sentiments expressed by voters and we must be committed in taking proactive steps to address issues concerning the rakyat [electorate],” he said, adding that the government would take steps to ease the economic burden felt by ordinary people.
Pakatan has been slow to honour several of its election pledges, including improving the lot of low-income rural residents, introducing more affordable housing and rental programmes, and creating better-paying jobs for youth.
While the government had announced in late February that it would scrap tolls at four highways, surveys suggested 60 per cent of voters in Semenyih were unimpressed.
“There is clearly unrest about how Pakatan is governing, both in terms of the economy and the unnecessary provocation of the Malay sentiment,” said Shahril, of Umno Youth, adding that the victory boded well for future Umno-PAS cooperation.
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“I’m hopeful that future cooperation continues to be Malaysian in spirit and can reach out to fence-sitters in both approach and principle, putting the people front and centre in our priorities. At some point in the near future we must also win over a sizeable minority of the non-Malay voters.”
The analysts Awang Azman said the Semenyih victory would boost Umno ahead of another by-election, in Rantau. “Their spirit is better than it has been in months.”
Wong, at the Penang Institute, said Pakatan needed to cater to ordinary people and not just its main support base of middle-class urban city dwellers.
“It must deliver economic improvements that ordinary people can feel, such as lower prices and higher wages,” said Wong.
“It must also build a social coalition that includes poorer Malays who support reform, and move away from proportional representation so that Umno and PAS have to compete with each other instead of teaming up.”