‘Let’s learn from Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad’: is Thailand about to ditch China for the US?

Pro-democracy politicians say the post-election future will see Thailand recalibrate its ties with China and throw doubt on a troubled rail link. Sound familiar?

Analysts in Beijing were more optimistic, expecting the domestic political status quo to remain and bilateral ties to stay on an even keel

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Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, leader of the Future Forward Party, says he might review work on a 3.5km portion of a rail link between China and Thailand if he comes to power. Photo: CFR.org

Published: 12:00pm, 16 Mar 2019Updated: 7:34pm, 16 Mar 2019

“It’s time for a rebalance”, “we’re too close to China”, “let’s learn from Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad”.

Those were some of the views on the future of Sino-Thai ties coming from pro-democracy Thai politicians and foreign policy watchers ahead of next week’s election – the country’s first since the May 2014 coup.

Analysts in Beijing were more optimistic, expecting the domestic political status quo to remain and bilateral ties to stay on an even keel.

Ever since General Prayuth Chan-Ocha seized power from the now-exiled former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, there has been a question mark over how he would position the country in the battle for regional influence between the United States and China.

After the coup, Washington reduced its security cooperation with Thailand, which alongside the Philippines is one of America’s two Southeast Asian treaty allies. At the same time, Prayuth took his country closer to China, buying arms worth billions of baht from the Asian power over the last five years.

Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha. Photo: Reuters

But now, whether or not Prayuth remains in power – and the odds are that he will because of skewed electoral rules – Sino-Thai relations are likely to be “rebalanced”, according to Pongphisoot Busbarat, a leading analyst of the Southeast Asian country’s foreign policy.

“The foreign policy establishment in the US and in Thailand are waiting for the normalisation of ties. Whether it’s Prayuth or some other party, this is going to happen,” said Pongphisoot, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University. That raises the possibility of a resumption in US defence financing and military education opportunities for Thailand.