Asian Angle | Why China’s belt and road could be a surprise winner of the Indonesian presidential election

When more than 190 million Indonesians head to the polls next week, the choice facing them might seem familiar. After all, the contenders – incumbent President Joko Widodo and former general Prabowo Subianto – are the same as in 2014’s elections. But it would be quite wrong to conclude that Indonesian politics is in for more of the same.

Whoever wins at the ballot box, there will be major implications not only for Indonesians, but also for the neighbours and global partners of what is the fourth largest country in the world and a member of the G20. Among those likely to be most affected is China, which views Indonesia as an important strategic partner in its global “Belt and Road Initiative”.

Widodo had initially been warm to Beijing’s strategy. He rubbed shoulders with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the first Belt and Road Summit in Beijing in 2017, and subsequently appointed his confidante and Coordinating Maritime Affairs Minister Luhut Pandjaitan to negotiate deals with Beijing.

In contrast, Subianto appears less sanguine about Chinese investments, and has suggested that existing projects should be reviewed to see if Indonesia can get a “better deal”.

Would a change of government in Indonesia lead to the retraction of deals with China, as was the case when the Mahathir Mohamad coalition toppled the Najib administration in the 2018 Malaysian election?