Explained: India’s massive elections are over so where does that leave Narendra Modi as counting day looms?

Modi appears poised to retain power despite a flailing economy, an unprecedented job crisis and a rise in Hindu right-wing violence

India

Kunal Purohit

Published: 12:00pm, 22 May 2019

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The six-week long Indian election culminates on Thursday when more than 600 million votes will be counted, revealing which party will form the next government.

Ultimately, the elections will determine whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi retains power despite a flailing economy, an unprecedented job crisis and a rise in Hindu right-wing violence against minority groups.

The elections involved 8,049 candidates from 677 different political parties wooing more than 900 million eligible voters over seven different phases, the last of which took place on May 19.

For the first time in possibly decades, the polls have become a de facto referendum on Modi, with his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) trying to cash in on his popularity. It was also a campaign dominated by the stand-off with Pakistan, even as India confronts an unemployment crisis, an economy slowdown and a severe drought across many regions.

What made these elections unique?

Modi and his BJP sought to transform the polls into a presidential-style election while making “leadership” the defining issue. This was aided by the fact none of the opposition parties offered a candidate for the prime ministership.

In response, powerful regional leaders in many states formed tactical alliances. For example, arch-rivals in Uttar Pradesh came together to thwart the BJP.

The BJP’s election campaign focused largely on issues of national security. The principal opposition party, the Congress, meanwhile alleged corruption by Modi in the awarding of a contract to make fighter jets by French company. It also promised to bring in the world’s “largest cash transfer” scheme for the poorest 50 million in the country.

Both campaigns were fixated on the word “chowkidar”, Hindi for security guard. While Modi claimed that he would be the country’s protector, Congress rallies reverberated with the slogans “chowkidar chor hai” – implying the security guard had turned out to be the thief.

Were there any low points through the election season?

Plenty. Modi, himself, courted controversy multiple times with incendiary rhetoric. In taking a hard line against Pakistan, he regularly threatened to escalate the conflict. Modi also asked first-time voters to “dedicate their first votes to the soldiers who conducted air strikes, the martyrs who lost their lives”.

The BJP’s decision to nominate Pragya Singh Thakur, accused of involvement in a 2008 terrorist attack which killed six people in a Muslim-dominated town of Malegaon, also attracted criticism.

Thakur made controversial statements, calling Mahatma Gandhi’s assassin a patriot. Separately, BJP president Amit Shah called undocumented migrants in India as “termites”.

How Modi’s ‘good days’ turned bad

The role of the Election Commission of India also came under scrutiny, with opposition parties alleging officials had favoured Modi and his party by taking no action against them for such statements.

Modi’s image on social media also took a beating – he made a series of gaffes in television interviews and appeared nervous in his first press conference in five years that ended with the prime minister refusing to take any questions.

Modi also attacked Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s father – the former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi, who died in 1991. Modi referred to him as “Corrupt Number 1”, alleging he had misused the Indian Navy for personal purposes.

Officials seal an Electronic Voting Machine at a polling station. Photo: Reuters

So where do the BJP and Modi stand?

According to multiple exit polls, Modi’s BJP is poised to emerge as the single largest party and form government. Admittedly, exit polls in India have a recent record of inaccuracy.

However, it is widely believed that Modi’s BJP will return to power, if not by itself then with help from some regional parties. It is believed that Modi’s campaign of pointing to the lack of strong leadership in the opposition ranks, the party’s use of communal rhetoric and the use of India’s military action against Pakistan might have swayed the electorate into voting for him.

Nuns wait to cast their vote at a polling station during the final phase of the Indian general election in Kolkata. Photo: EPA

So what happens on Thursday?

Election officials across the country will start counting votes, before final seat tallies are confirmed in the evening.

Much of the result will depend on a few major states: particularly Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP and its allies have faced a regional alliance between the Samajwadi party and the Bahujan Samaj party.

Any BJP losses in Uttar Pradesh, however, may be balanced out by gains in West Bengal, although it faces another formidable regional player there, in the state’s chief minister, Mamata Banerjee, and her party, the Trinamool Congress.

Unless the results produce a fractured mandate, it could be clear relatively early whether Modi remains prime minister.

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