“Right from the start, hardliners, extremists and right-wing conservatives are not under Prabowo’s control as they have their own agenda,” said Hendardi, head of Setara Institute.

He said the masterminds of the riots wanted to turn Indonesia “into a Syria”, and they hoped Widodo would not be able to handle the situation.

But Arya Fernandes, a researcher with Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies, was more optimistic. He said demonstrations had reached a peak and large segments of the public were rejecting mass rallies.

“I think the possibility for huge demonstrations is small … the coalition of Prabowo is beginning to crack,” Arya said, adding the arrests of the riot leaders was another factor curtailing unrest.

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Two retired military officials, Kivlan Zen and Soenarko, who served under former dictator Suharto before his reign ended in 1998, have been arrested on grounds of illegally possessing firearms.

A hitman detained in the assassination plot told local media the mastermind was Kivlan, who is a former member of the elite Army Strategic Reserve Command.

Hendardi from the Setara Institute believed several retired generals and elites from the Suharto era, who have been ousted from the political and economic sphere since Widodo came to power in 2014, had an interest in sowing discord.

Widodo is a former furniture salesman turned reformist city governor, and is the country’s first president not from a political, religious or military background.

Indonesia’s Vice-President Jusuf Kalla told reporters last week he had met Prabowo, who gave his personal guarantee there would be no more “mass actions”.

Kalla reportedly said Prabowo called “all his people” on the phone during the meeting and ordered them to stop “their mass protests”.

“Prabowo is not capable and will not be able to stop them. The only people who could stop them are law enforcement officials,” Hendardi said, adding that the hardliners had been indoctrinated to view democracy and nationalism as toghut (sinful and un-Islamic).

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“They [Islamic hardliners] are not interested in accepting the election results or reconciliation for the sake of national integration because their aim is to show that democracy is a bad system and that elections are a democratic mechanism that has failed.”

Agus Widjojo, governor of the National Resilience Institute and a retired three-star general instrumental in reforming the military after Suharto was deposed, said he believed more Indonesians were “enlightened [and] coming to their senses”, realising the provocations were merely to stir up unrest.

“But on the negative side there are still hardliners struggling for their political Islam ideology and they see this as their best chance to push their political purpose,” he said.

Widjojo expressed confidence the police would be able to handle the situation as they have become more professional and experienced.

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Communications and information minister Rudiantara said the government was closely monitoring social media to ensure there would be no “escalation [of provocative content] in cyberspace. In particular, the government is paying special attention to instant messaging app WhatsApp, which is used by 40 per cent of internet users in Indonesia, according to the Jakarta Globe.

The Indonesian National Commission for Human Rights (Komnas Ham), which is investigating the riots, referred to a “network” spanning Jakarta, Banten, West Java and the south Sumatran cities of Lampung and Bangka Belitung that had mobilised protesters.

Human Rights Watch researcher Andreas Harsono said it was “possible violence might still burst out until October 20, as it’s a very delicate situation”.

“If the police and the prosecutors could provide solid evidence against those charged with the violence, the truth will make it difficult for those who want to create chaos to provoke racial tension,” he said. “Vice versa, if the police and prosecutors fail to present convincing cases, it will increase tension again.”

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Indonesian investors and markets have proven relatively resilient since the riots, with capital markets emerging mostly unscathed due to various stabilisation efforts, according to Bank Danamon Indonesia economist Wisnu Wardana.

“There were some setbacks during the week of May 20-24 as major trading centres were unreachable and companies of various sizes had to undergo limited operations.

“Overall, given the circumstances whereby average Jakartans were unprepared, I think the government has done a great job in deterring the situation strategically and with good coordination,” Wardana said.

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While foreign investors may be taking a wait-and-see attitude, it is not driven by political instability but by the wait for reforms to labour policy.

“Uncertainty over politics weighs more on local investors as they await the next policy direction as well as cabinet members,” Wardana said.

In the meantime, it is business as usual for information technology entrepreneur Okki Soebagio, who said the riots did not hurt his trade.

“It had no effect at all,” he said. “In Jakarta, the malls are still busy and people are out. They are not staying home.”

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