Indonesia is on alert for riots this week, ahead of Friday’s first hearing by the Constitutional Court on losing presidential challenger Prabowo Subianto’s claims the April 17 election was rigged. Indonesian defence minister Ryamizard Ryacudu last week warned of “bigger riots in June” compared with the May 21-22 clashes in Jakarta between Prabowo’s supporters and security forces. Eight people died and hundreds more were injured, while 442 protesters, mostly young men, were arrested. Analysts expect the Prabowo camp to have an uphill battle in court, given the lack of evidence produced by the former general’s team. A decision is expected by June 28. But prominent human rights group Setara Institute said it feared Prabowo was not capable of controlling his supporters from hardline religious and political groups, who wanted to stir up chaos and create an atmosphere of uncertainty to oppose incumbent President Joko Widodo’s re-election . Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, won 55 per cent of the vote and will be sworn in on October 20. “Right from the start, hardliners, extremists and right-wing conservatives are not under Prabowo’s control as they have their own agenda,” said Hendardi, head of Setara Institute. He said the masterminds of the riots wanted to turn Indonesia “into a Syria”, and they hoped Widodo would not be able to handle the situation. But Arya Fernandes, a researcher with Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies, was more optimistic. He said demonstrations had reached a peak and large segments of the public were rejecting mass rallies. “I think the possibility for huge demonstrations is small … the coalition of Prabowo is beginning to crack,” Arya said, adding the arrests of the riot leaders was another factor curtailing unrest. Overseas Chinese workers: what’s driving Indonesian paranoia? Two retired military officials, Kivlan Zen and Soenarko, who served under former dictator Suharto before his reign ended in 1998, have been arrested on grounds of illegally possessing firearms. Another six suspects were arrested in connection with a plot to kill Widodo’s top security generals , including security minister Wiranto and the country’s intelligence chief Budi Gunawan. A hitman detained in the assassination plot told local media the mastermind was Kivlan, who is a former member of the elite Army Strategic Reserve Command. Hendardi from the Setara Institute believed several retired generals and elites from the Suharto era, who have been ousted from the political and economic sphere since Widodo came to power in 2014, had an interest in sowing discord. Widodo is a former furniture salesman turned reformist city governor, and is the country’s first president not from a political, religious or military background. Indonesia’s Vice-President Jusuf Kalla told reporters last week he had met Prabowo, who gave his personal guarantee there would be no more “mass actions”. Kalla reportedly said Prabowo called “all his people” on the phone during the meeting and ordered them to stop “their mass protests”. But Hendardi said he did not have confidence they would listen to Prabowo, who benefited from hardliners mobilising votes for him and his running mate Sandiaga Uno during the divisive election campaign. “Prabowo is not capable and will not be able to stop them. The only people who could stop them are law enforcement officials,” Hendardi said, adding that the hardliners had been indoctrinated to view democracy and nationalism as toghut (sinful and un-Islamic). Indonesia’s riots under control – and one man is taking credit “They [Islamic hardliners] are not interested in accepting the election results or reconciliation for the sake of national integration because their aim is to show that democracy is a bad system and that elections are a democratic mechanism that has failed.” The groups linked to the violent unrest include the radical Islamic Reform Movement (Garis), two members of which were arrested in connection with May’s riots. The movement has pledged loyalty to Islamic State (Isis) and sent almost 200 Indonesians to Syria . Another group is the extremist Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), though its leadership has denied involvement in the riots. Agus Widjojo, governor of the National Resilience Institute and a retired three-star general instrumental in reforming the military after Suharto was deposed, said he believed more Indonesians were “enlightened [and] coming to their senses”, realising the provocations were merely to stir up unrest. “But on the negative side there are still hardliners struggling for their political Islam ideology and they see this as their best chance to push their political purpose,” he said. Widjojo expressed confidence the police would be able to handle the situation as they have become more professional and experienced. Prabowo has ‘many contradictions’, but can he still disrupt Widodo’s reign? Communications and information minister Rudiantara said the government was closely monitoring social media to ensure there would be no “escalation [of provocative content] in cyberspace. In particular, the government is paying special attention to instant messaging app WhatsApp, which is used by 40 per cent of internet users in Indonesia, according to the Jakarta Globe . When the riots hit Jakarta last month, Rudiantara’s ministry curbed the uploading of photos and videos on social media platforms such as Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram to prevent the frantic recirculating of hoaxes, including those that were anti-Chinese. The Indonesian National Commission for Human Rights (Komnas Ham), which is investigating the riots, referred to a “network” spanning Jakarta, Banten, West Java and the south Sumatran cities of Lampung and Bangka Belitung that had mobilised protesters. This and fake news that “police from China” had shot protesters fuelled violence, even though the demonstrations were peaceful when they began on May 21. Human Rights Watch researcher Andreas Harsono said it was “possible violence might still burst out until October 20, as it’s a very delicate situation”. “If the police and the prosecutors could provide solid evidence against those charged with the violence, the truth will make it difficult for those who want to create chaos to provoke racial tension,” he said. “Vice versa, if the police and prosecutors fail to present convincing cases, it will increase tension again.” Indonesia riots: ex-US serviceman in viral YouTube rant wrote 9/11 conspiracy books Indonesian investors and markets have proven relatively resilient since the riots, with capital markets emerging mostly unscathed due to various stabilisation efforts, according to Bank Danamon Indonesia economist Wisnu Wardana. “There were some setbacks during the week of May 20-24 as major trading centres were unreachable and companies of various sizes had to undergo limited operations. “Overall, given the circumstances whereby average Jakartans were unprepared, I think the government has done a great job in deterring the situation strategically and with good coordination,” Wardana said. Jakarta traders pick up the pieces after days of chaos While foreign investors may be taking a wait-and-see attitude, it is not driven by political instability but by the wait for reforms to labour policy. “Uncertainty over politics weighs more on local investors as they await the next policy direction as well as cabinet members,” Wardana said. In the meantime, it is business as usual for information technology entrepreneur Okki Soebagio, who said the riots did not hurt his trade. “It had no effect at all,” he said. “In Jakarta, the malls are still busy and people are out. They are not staying home.” Connect with us on Twitter and Facebook