Following a somewhat rare behind-the-scenes jostle within the PAP for the top job, Heng emerged as the heir apparent after internal elections last year. He was made deputy prime minister last month – effectively making him the prime minister-in-waiting.

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Then, adding fuel to the election speculation was Heng’s announcement this month of a government-led “Singapore Together” public consultation to gather views on policy.

Inderjit Singh, a veteran of the PAP who retired from politics in 2015 after serving 18 years as an MP, said historically the party had called polls in two scenarios. The first, Singh said, was when the climate was “sweet” and in favour of the PAP; the second, when the party was in the eye of the storm – “when there are uncertainties and potential national problems that can cause Singaporeans to suffer”.

“I feel this time round, the PAP will call for the [general election] based on potential uncertainties …[arising from the] US-China trade war,” the former lawmaker said.

“The uncertain scenario is expected to create a sense of worry and the need for a proven stable government that has a track record of bringing Singapore out of similar situations in the past.”

The former MP broached the example of the 2001 polls, during which the party seized 75 per cent of the popular vote – a 10 per cent upward swing – amid economic uncertainty and the threat of the terror contagion reaching domestic shores following the 9/11 attacks in the US. The PAP won 67 per cent of the popular vote in 2006 – Lee Hsien Loong’s first election as prime minister. The figure was 60 per cent in 2011, the party’s worst showing following widespread discontent over immigration. In the last election held in September 2015, the PAP secured 69.9 per cent of votes, a result analysts say came about as it banked a groundswell of goodwill following the death of Lee Kuan Yew.

While Singh did not speculate when the polls would be held, the chatter among others in the establishment and across the country’s many tiny opposition parties is that a snap vote as early as September is not out of the question.

The consensus among government insiders is that a 2019 election would be too early because Heng needs to complete a full year as deputy and roll out his national consultation campaign. Still, they said they would not write off Lee and Heng calling a snap vote for the fourth quarter.

If that is the plan, Lee’s administration must fire the starting gun for the vote next month.

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In the opposition – encumbered by what critics have said are structural curbs on its political opponents put in place by the long-ruling PAP – activists have said they are putting the finishing touches to campaign strategies.

Eight opposition parties contested the 2015 polls, with the Workers’ Party winning six seats.

The PAP has held a legislative supermajority since the 1968 election.

A definitive sign of impending polls would be the release of a new electoral boundaries map. In 2015, the report was released less than two months before the vote.

Australia-based Singapore politics researcher Terence Lee said a confluence of several factors led him to believe that the vote would be held within this calendar year.

Among the reasons for a possible snap vote in September was the “perennial feel-good effect” of National Day celebrations in August.

This year’s celebrations are expected to stand out as the Lion City commemorates its “bicentennial” – the 200th anniversary of the landing of British colonialist Sir Stamford Raffles.

Meanwhile, benefits from a new S$6.1 billion (US$4.5 billion) Merdeka (Independence) Generation fund to support health care needs of Singaporeans born in the 1950s would start to reach recipients next month, potentially giving the PAP an electoral fillip, said Lee of Murdoch University.

But not everyone is convinced the stars are aligned for a 2019 vote.

Eugene Tan, a long-time local politics observer, said banking heavily on voters viewing the PAP as a safe haven during an economic downturn could backfire.

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Economic data released this week all but suggested a recession, or at least a technical downturn over consecutive quarters with declining GDP growth, is at Singapore’s doorstep.

Among the world’s most trade-reliant economies, Singapore has been badly hurt by the US-China trade war. The economic growth figure of 1.2 per cent achieved in the January-March period was the lowest in a decade. The central bank has suggested it could downgrade its forecast of 1.5-2.5 per cent annual growth.

Tan, a law professor at the Singapore Management University, said the economic downturn “trump card” had to be played very carefully “for if the electorate takes the view that the PAP is exploiting the economic downturn, a snap poll will backfire”.

“Arguably, if the electorate takes the view that the ruling party is exploiting the situation when it should be concentrating on the economy, then that will do irreparable damage,” he said.

Also likely to be parsed is the tenor and speed of Heng’s national consultation campaign.

The career civil servant turned politician launched a similar year-long exercise in 2012, after the weak electoral showing a year earlier.

Woo Jun-jie, a Singaporean professor at the Education University of Hong Kong, suggested the new campaign – details of which have yet to be unveiled – would be a fresh opportunity for Heng, a former central banker, to move beyond his “cerebral and policy-minded” public image and burnish himself as someone “accessible to the public”.

Tan said Singaporeans would be scrutinising whether the new exercise was “the proverbial old wine in new bottles”.

The exercise was likely to give the PAP a “good sensing” of issues that Singaporeans were concerned with, and in turn help the party craft its manifesto and election promises, he said.

Heng, who is concurrently finance minister, said soon after his promotion to deputy prime minister last month that the ruling party was working on its manifesto and the selection of candidates for the upcoming polls.

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Prime Minister Lee, and his predecessor Goh Chok Tong, who held office from 1990 to 2004 after taking over from Lee Kuan Yew, both came into office with promises of greater consultation.

Both prime ministers since the senior Lee have positioned themselves as farther away from the independence leader’s heavy-handed approach to governance.

Heng, in a speech outlining his new campaign this month, suggested constant consultation would be at the centre of his governance style.

Singh, the stalwart ex-backbencher, said Heng would have “a tougher task compared to the two past PMs in convincing Singaporeans that their consultation will lead to significant changes”.

“Past experience has been that while there were changes after a consultation process, the government did not go far enough,” Singh said.

“This time around, Deputy Prime Minister Heng and team have an opportunity to gain the trust of Singaporeans if they do it right and it is best that they under promise and over deliver this time. In the past, most of the consultation process over promised and under delivered.” ■