US using trade war to stop China overtaking it: ex-Singapore diplomat Kishore Mahbubani

Kishore Mahbubani says the US could have solved its trade dispute with China if it wanted to, but it is now a ‘geopolitical contest’
China’s Belt and Road Initiative was a ‘pre-emptive strike’ against the US and current world order

US-China relations

Lee Jeong-ho

Published: 12:12pm, 4 Sep 2019

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The United States’ ultimate goal in its trade war with China may be to prevent its emerging rival from overtaking it as the world’s greatest economic power – and hence secure its leading position in the current world order, a former Singapore diplomat has said.

Kishore Mahbubani, who was Singapore’s permanent representative to the United Nations and also the president of the UN Security Council, told the This Week in Asia that political imperatives lie at the centre of what it appears to be a “trade” conflict between the world’s two largest economies.

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“I think it’s now becoming clear that it’s not just a trade war … If it was purely a trade war, and if the US’ goal was to only reduce trade deficits with China, I think that problem could have been solved easily, because clearly China wants to have a constructive relationship with the US,” said Mahbubani, who is now a distinguished fellow of the Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore.

“But as you know, [the US] is not very clear on what America’s goal is … If the goal is to decouple the two economies, it becomes a very different game.”

Starting from Monday, US President Donald Trump imposed a 15 per cent tariff on an additional tranche of products that will ultimately cover a further US$300 billion of Chinese goods exported to the US later this year. The new additions, which mean that effectively all Chinese exports to America are tariffed after December 15, were in response to Beijing’s retaliatory decision to place a 10 per cent tariff on US$75 billion worth of American products.

“[The US’] goal may be in stopping China from becoming the number one economy in the world … So I think it’s much larger than just a trade. It’s now a geopolitical contest,” Mahbubani said.

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The US is targeting Chinese goods such as televisions, smartwatches, shoes and clothes. Meanwhile, China is hitting US crude oil for the first time and US pork for the third time, raising total tariffs on imports of its favourite meat to 72 per cent.

The former top diplomat also said the US economic measures may be Washington’s response to Beijing’s “pre-emptive strike” – its multibillion-dollar infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is aimed at expanding China’s economic clout.

“What China has done is to launch a pre-emptive strike against the [US] containment policy, by making the neighbours of China dependent on the Chinese economy in the trade and investment front,” said Mahbubani, during a visit to Hong Kong where he held a talk on his book, Has the West Lost It?

“The BRI will tie the neighbours of China much closer to the Chinese economy, they’ll benefit from China’s growth, and therefore, they will not join a containment policy against China.”

Cambodian and Chinese workers at a BRI construction project. Photo: AFP

Beijing’s BRI project has long faced international scrutiny, with critics saying it serves China’s political agenda to take hegemonic power from the US, while also accusing it of putting participating countries in a debt trap.

Those taking part in the initiative have also faced heavy criticism – both internal and external – for accommodating China’s project to legitimise its geopolitical ambition globally, which sceptics claim could ultimately lead to the West’s sphere of influence diminishing.

But Mahbubani stressed that China’s BRI project also serves economic motives – not just Beijing’s political imperatives.

“China has developed a surplus capability in infrastructure development, and it can deploy that to the rest of the world. Countries in Asia need more infrastructure anyway so they’ll benefit … There is definitely an economic imperative,” Mahbubani said.

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The leading academic also defended Beijing’s use of punitive economic measures on smaller states. Beijing used coercive economic measures on Norway, the Philippines and South Korea when the countries did not meet Beijing’s political needs.

“I take the view as a student of history that the term benevolent great power is an oxymoron. All great powers will defend their own interests. And all great powers will use their power and influence to advance their interests,” Mahbubani said.

“There is, of course, a big difference between using economic means and military means … China is the only great power today that has not fired a single bullet across its borders in 30 years. By contrast, even under the peaceful American presidency of Barack Obama, the US dropped 26,000 bombs on seven countries in 2016.

“The world is better off if great powers use economic means rather than military means to enhance their interests,” Mahbubani said.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: ‘trade war aims to stop china’s rise’

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