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North Korea
This Week in AsiaPolitics

Is North Korea’s new submarine ballistic missile a threat to US?

  • Military experts say the missile is not a significant threat as it would be reliant on a submarine that uses technology from decades ago
  • The North’s submarine-based missile ambitions may be more about politics and having a bargaining chip in talks with the US, says analyst

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Nuclear-armed Pyongyang frequently couples diplomatic overtures with military moves as a way of maintaining pressure on negotiating partners. Photo: AFP
Julian Ryall
When North Korea last week carried out its 11th missile test of the year, some media reports said the new submarine-launched ballistic missile posed a new threat to the mainland United States and global security.

The Pentagon later confirmed that the Pukkuksong-3 missile – which has a maximum range of 1,900km and is understood to be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead – had been launched from a submersible barge.

Analysts said the launch was a major step forward for the North’s ambitions to fit a ballistic missile onto a submarine, which would theoretically allow Pyongyang to menace the US. But other analysts said the latest missile is not a significant threat because it is fully reliant on a submarine that uses technology from more than six decades ago.

North Korean state media showed images of the regime’s new missile submarine when leader Kim Jong-un visited the Sinpo South Shipyard in July.

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Kim apparently expressed his “great satisfaction” with the 3,000-tonne vessel and vowed that its deployment was “near at hand”.

Recent satellite images of the east coast shipyard also indicate that new berthing facilities were being prepared.

This is old technology and if North Korea were to use it, they would expect to be subject to catastrophic return fire from the US
Daniel L Davis, Defence Priorities think tank

However, Lance Gatling, a Tokyo-based military analyst, said: “[The North Koreans] are going to realise that they spent a whole lot of money on something that will die very quickly in the event of war”.

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