When North Korea last week carried out its 11th missile test of the year, some media reports said the new submarine-launched ballistic missile posed a new threat to the mainland United States and global security. The Pentagon later confirmed that the Pukkuksong-3 missile – which has a maximum range of 1,900km and is understood to be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead – had been launched from a submersible barge. Analysts said the launch was a major step forward for the North’s ambitions to fit a ballistic missile onto a submarine, which would theoretically allow Pyongyang to menace the US. But other analysts said the latest missile is not a significant threat because it is fully reliant on a submarine that uses technology from more than six decades ago. North Korean state media showed images of the regime’s new missile submarine when leader Kim Jong-un visited the Sinpo South Shipyard in July. Kim apparently expressed his “great satisfaction” with the 3,000-tonne vessel and vowed that its deployment was “near at hand”. Recent satellite images of the east coast shipyard also indicate that new berthing facilities were being prepared. This is old technology and if North Korea were to use it, they would expect to be subject to catastrophic return fire from the US Daniel L Davis, Defence Priorities think tank However, Lance Gatling, a Tokyo-based military analyst, said: “[The North Koreans] are going to realise that they spent a whole lot of money on something that will die very quickly in the event of war”. According to Western intelligence, the North’s submarine is believed to be the product of a five-year development programme, and is based on 1950s Soviet diesel-electric propulsion and missile launch technology. It will have up to three missile tubes and a limited range. To strike a target on the west coast of the continental US, the submarine would need to traverse 6,100km of the Pacific and a similar distance to return to its home port, experts say. It has a maximum range of around 7,000km, making the attack a one-way mission. “Best estimates I’ve seen indicate the boat is a redesigned Romeo-class submarine that was altered to allow the inclusion of up to three nuclear-tipped missiles,” said Daniel L Davis, a senior fellow at the Defence Priorities think tank in Washington DC. Did North Korea use missile launch to have a stronger hand for US nuclear talks? “This is old technology and if North Korea were to use it, they would surely expect to be subject to catastrophic return fire from the United States, essentially destroying their military,” said Davis, who previously served for 21 years in the US military. “South Korean officials I spoke to in Washington admitted they were concerned over the boat’s deployment because it could expand North Korea’s ability to launch missiles against the South and to potentially evade missile defences in a general war scenario. “While the submarine is an older, less stealthy-variant, it is still a capable vessel. It would be a near-suicide mission for the boat and its crew, but it could launch missiles in an emergency situation.” Gatling, however, has a good deal more faith in the forces arrayed against North Korea. “As soon as that thing goes in the water, it will be under constant surveillance,” he said. “They will not be able to open a hatch on that submarine without someone, somewhere taking note – much less go to sea without being noticed.” The US has been operating submarines for more than 150 years and has invested billions in a fleet that was designed to take on technologically adept adversaries such as Russia, Gatling noted. China, North Korea vow to strengthen ties hours after US nuclear talks collapse Equally, Japan has some of the most advanced conventional hunter-killer submarines in the world and has long experience of operating in the shallow coastal waters of the Sea of Japan or East Sea, he said. “I’m sure North Korea has tried to incorporate quieting technology into the submarine, but they’re still operating with outdated technology and it is difficult to believe it would be quiet enough to completely hide the submarine from two of the world’s most advanced navies,” Gatling said. “From the moment it is launched, that submarine is going to be one of the most closely monitored single devices in history.” ‘Highly unusual’ North Korean submarine activity spotted by US military According to analysts, North Korea is up against an array of other obstacles. Its navy has never operated beyond its immediate coastal areas and has no experience in the Pacific. The North’s navy lacks accurate charts providing details on ocean depths, currents and weather patterns. Without the help of allies China and Russia, this could complicate North Korea’s efforts to recover a stricken vessel in the vastness of the Pacific. But the submarine’s biggest shortfall is going to be in its technology. “If this vessel does try to get out into the Pacific, it has to go either north or south of Japan,” Gatling said. “Those straits are controlled by Japan, and even the Russians don’t try to go through the Soya Strait [between Hokkaido and Sakhalin] when they are submerged because it’s so shallow. Their submarines surface and are escorted through by ships.” Japan and the US also make extensive use of the Sound Surveillance System (Sosus), a network of hydrophone arrays on the seabed that monitor the movement of vessels. North Korea hacked blueprints for South Korean warships and subs, lawmaker says The system is so advanced that it enables the triangulation of a target. According to Gatling, in the 1980s, Sosus placed off the eastern seaboard of the US was used to track Russian submarines thousands of kilometres away as they rounded northern Norway to enter the Atlantic Ocean. The technology has been improved significantly since then. “For anyone to say that this missile and this submarine are ‘massive game-changers’ is completely overblown,” Gatling said, although he added that it is in the interests of both sides for that to happen. Japan and the US want continued investment in better anti-submarine technology and North Korea has a bargaining chip that Kim can play in his ongoing negotiations with US President Donald Trump . An alternative theory by observers as to why the impoverished North – still labouring under international sanctions and reliant on international aid to feed around 40 per cent of its own population – continues to lavish money on a weapon that has little likelihood of working is that it’s a vanity project for the North Korean regime. Others see a degree of method in Kim’s designs. “Kim wants to increase the image of strong leadership domestically and the credibility of a nuclear deterrent internationally,” said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international relations at Ewha University in Seoul. “North Korea’s submarine-based missile ambitions may currently be more politics than operational reality, but the same was said about its long-range missiles two decades ago,” Easley said. “We ignore these developments at our peril.”