Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is taking a “dangerous gamble” by inviting Russia to explore for oil in the South China Sea, defence and security analysts have warned. Duterte’s courting of the state-owned Russian oil giant Rosneft during his visit to Moscow last week risks putting his country in the middle of a three-way tug of war between some of the world’s most powerful geopolitical rivals: the United States , China and Russia, say the experts. Since coming to power, Duterte has performed something of a diplomatic balancing act when it comes to ties with Manila’s traditional ally, the US, and the rising regional power, China. While he has championed a stronger relationship with Beijing at Washington’s expense, long-standing territorial disputes between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea have restricted how far he can go in this realignment. Analysts warn that introducing a third country, Russia, into the equation risks alienating both Washington and Beijing . Duterte is willing to work with China but so far has little to show for it Duterte made the offer to Rosneft on October 2, when together with his national security adviser and ministers for defence, energy, foreign affairs and finance he met the directors of the Russian firm, including its chief executive Igor Sechin. While few details were publicly disclosed, Duterte’s spokesman Salvador Panelo said the president had “invited Rosneft, the leader in the Russian oil sector, to invest in the Philippines, particularly with regard to oil and gas development”. Duterte later confirmed that when he had met Russian President Vladimir Putin the pair had discussed energy exploration in the “West Philippine Sea” – the portion of the South China Sea that Manila claims as its territorial waters. Analysts said Russia’s geopolitical rivals, China, Japan, and the US, would all be watching closely to see what happened next. “Duterte plays well in strategic ambiguity that may use China as the bait,” said the University of the Philippines Professor Chester Cabalza, who is also a fellow of the People’s Liberation Army’s National Defence University in Beijing. “If Duterte succeeds, three great powers may play around him but with great consequences. These are major powers with sophisticated intelligence networks and high-calibre weaponry. But one wrong move by Duterte could damage strategic partnerships with our non-traditional partners. “It’s unfortunately a dangerous gamble.” Cabalza warned that in playing larger powers off against each other, Duterte might be out of his depth. “Putin and [Chinese President Xi Jinping ] are erudite leaders honed by experience and strong strategic culture. Duterte may be considered a strongman and a populist leader, but Putin and Xi are ruling bigger nations, stronger economies and many people.” However, Cabalza said China was likely to be forgiving of the move. “China will object discreetly but it is our right to forge agreement with any country as long as it is in our national interests and serves well the needs of many Filipinos.” Any rift with China over the matter could “be patched up diplomatically since China has good relations with Russia. Both giant countries are [helping] each other in many respects, geopolitically and economically, to counter the US”. Cabalza also said there were potential upsides. “Rosneft has a credible value chain and reputation internationally” he said, adding that it could “contribute to the country’s needs” but that it needed to recognise the requirement of the constitution that any partnership should be 60/40 in the Philippines’ favour. As for the US, Cabalza said it was distracted by the 2020 presidential elections and focused on setting up its allies in the region as competitors to China and Russia. Military historian Jose Custodio, a former defence consultant at the Office of the President, said the Philippines should proceed with caution. Duterte’s development plan for South China Sea islands ‘poses security risk’ He warned Duterte against being seen as “a security threat to the US. Otherwise, there is a potential for regime change”. “If we allow Russia access, they know that is targeted at Russia’s rivals in the region – the US and Japan,” said Custodio. “How far are [Philippine officials] willing to go? They have to figure out – how far are they willing to [anger] the US?” He noted that Russia was increasing its footprint in Asia, confined for now in Vietnam, and warned that the US would be angry if the Philippines helped Moscow by hosting more port visits by Russian warships, by buying Russian military equipment or allowing Russia to set up tourism offices in areas where they could monitor ships. Buying military equipment from Russia, he added, might trigger sanctions under the 2017 law called Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act or CAATSA. “Russia as a threat is larger in the US mind than China. Russia has always been a sore point with the US. Russia meddled in their elections,” Custodio said. The Philippines, a colony of the US for four decades, has until recently kept Russia at arm’s length, but since Duterte came to power total trade has jumped from US$234 million in 2016 to US$1.36 billion in 2017. Around 10,000 Filipinos are thought to work in Russia as household workers and nannies, many of them illegally. China-Philippines war over South China Sea? ‘Duterte is fear mongering’ Ten agreements, mainly regarding business and investments and the sale of coconut milk and fish products, were signed during Duterte’s five-day state visit. A Memorandum of Intent was also signed to “jointly explore the prospects of cooperation in the construction of nuclear power plants in the Philippines”. The Philippine Constitution bans nuclear weapons but not the use of nuclear energy. Although the Philippine Secretary of National Defence Delfin Lorenzana met his Russian counterpart, no arms purchase deal was announced. However, presidential spokesman Panelo said on Monday negotiations regarding “the purchase of certain military equipment” were continuing. He said any purchase from Russia would “perhaps….be for the better because the US will now feel a little insecure about it [and thus] be more open to giving us fair deals”. A senior government source played down the discussions with Rosneft, saying they were still “quite speculative” and that it was still “too early to say” how they would develop. “If at all, any exploration by Rosneft would probably start in non-contentious areas first.”