It had been widely reported that the transition would take place within a two-year time frame, but Mahathir, 94, cast doubt on this assumption in September, when he said he would not go beyond three years of rule.

‘NOTHING ON PAPER’

Within both the ruling coalition and opposition parties, lawmakers are quietly jostling for the leadership by promising political strength.

Anwar Ibrahim Q&A: on prison, dissent and the cautious approach to race

Traditionally in Malaysia’s parliamentary system, the party with the most seats chooses the prime minister from its ranks. Anwar’s People’s Justice Party (PKR) has 50 seats, whereas Mahathir’s Malaysian United Indigenous Party (Bersatu) has 26. However, some in the Pakatan Harapan coalition as well as opposition parties are insisting that Mahathir, who also served as prime minister from 1981 to 2003, should remain in power for the full five-year term.

Government officials have previously said they believe Mahathir’s personal preference is to step down after the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit that Malaysia is hosting next year. The forum will be held towards the end of 2020.

“The problem is there are a lot of traitors,” said Anwar this week at a PKR event in the Bornean state of Sabah, adding that he was not pushing for the leadership transition. His comments came just days after he warned those hopeful of scuppering his ambitions that “people can dream … but that does not mean that you are going to shake or scuttle the process”.

The internal jockeying had resulted in “a game of numbers, blocs making political moves”, said political scientist Awang Azman of the University Malaya’s Institute of Malay Studies. The ambiguity over the transition had led to political “warfare” that threatened to compromise national stability, even as the government grappled with economic woes and other teething pains, he said.

“Governing has become a side show in Malaysia while politics take centre stage. But if Pakatan Harapan cannot govern, how can it manage internal crises?”

Sex-video scandal pits Anwar against Azmin – but Mahathir is the winner

RIVALS

Earlier this year, Azmin received flak from within the PKR for being “disloyal” to Anwar during heated internal party elections plagued by violence and allegations of cheating.

“There is truth to this line-up for sure,” said a PKR source. “But if these guys truly have the numbers, why haven’t they made a move yet?”

Anwar’s support among the Pakatan Harapan leadership was solid, said the source, and change was inevitable.

Internal divisions and infighting – linked to the questions of succession – would “destabilise the government”, said analyst James Chin of Tasmania University’s Asia Institute, though he said it was unlikely Malaysians would see public confrontations.

“Anwar has learned before that Mahathir always wins in direct confrontations. This struggle for primacy will see veiled messages sent via social media and third parties, with movements made in the shadows.”

Speculation is rife that Mahathir is gunning to reconstruct the coalition around his own party rather than the PKR by cooperating with the opposition, but gaining these numbers was tricky business, Chin said, and even more so given the backdrop of ethno-religious sabre-rattling as Pakatan Harapan struggles to capture the support of the majority-Malay vote bank.

Before he was jailed, Anwar had served as deputy prime minister for some years during Mahathir’s first stint as prime minister. Soon after his release, he led the opposition to an unprecedented electoral showing, seizing a third of parliamentary seats from his former coalition, the Barisan Nasional.

‘Now I have freed him,’ says Mahathir as Anwar walks

He was imprisoned for sodomy once again in 2015 but received a full royal pardon in May 2018, just days after the Pakatan Harapan beat the Barisan Nasional in national elections, with Anwar’s PKR gaining the lion’s share of seats in parliament.

Anwar has maintained that his role is to cooperate with Mahathir and ensure economic development, but as the two-year mark put forth by his supporters draws nearer PKR sources believe tensions may come to a head.

“Everyone wants Anwar to take over. But if there are no signs by March next year, things will start to happen.”