South China Sea joint energy deals will fail in face of maritime disputes, study finds
- Chinese scholar Song Xue examined 19 joint development projects worldwide between 1958 and 2008 and found territorial disputes that hurt bilateral ties often caused pacts to fail
- She cited the Philippines-China venture as an example where both sides had set aside claims for ‘mutual economic gains’
In contrast, there were no consistent correlations between failure of such bilateral pacts and five other factors: an absence of economic incentives, high energy independence of countries involved, domestic politics, “third-party” interference and disagreements over the details of the venture.
The study of past joint ventures showed “improved bilateral relations is the prerequisite for the effective implementation of joint development ventures, and not the other way around” said Song, an assistant professor at the Institute of International Studies.
“Littoral states should also not pursue joint development agreements as a false pretext to secretly consolidate their maritime boundary claims, or to confirm the status of a ‘dispute’.”
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There is currently heightened focus on energy exploration activities in the disputed waters.
Over the past year, China and the Philippines have developed plans for joint explorations in contested waters, with Manila entitled to 60 per cent of the revenue.
A memorandum of understanding was signed in 2018 after President Rodrigo Duterte diverged from his predecessor Benigno Aquino’s hawkish stance on the Philippines’ claims and instead pursued an aggressively pro-China policy.
The cases studied by Song offered rich evidence of how bickering over long-standing, seemingly intractable differences over maritime boundaries lead to implementation failure of joint development pacts.
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Of the 19 projects, seven were classified as failures based on two definitions: there was no progress within five years of a deal coming into effect or the venture was cancelled within the validity period of the agreement.
The seven ventures included a 1971 deal between Iran and the Sharjah sheikhdom, a 1979 deal between Malaysia and Thailand, a 1982 deal between Vietnam and Cambodia, a 1993 deal between Columbia and Jamaica, a 1995 deal between Britain and Argentina, a 2001 deal between Thailand and Cambodia and a 2008 deal between Japan and China.
In most cases, the “breakdown in bilateral relations transpired out of the very same disputes which the countries had initially sought to address through joint development”, Song wrote.
In the 2008 deal between Japan and China to jointly develop gas fields in the disputed East China Sea, for example, the pact was eventually unsuccessful due to the “war of words” between the countries over maritime delimitation, she wrote. Tensions have simmered between the neighbours over the dispute for years.
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“Both China and Japan proposed the delimitation plan to back their own territorial claim, and showed little sincerity to truly make a viable plan to develop together,” Song wrote.
Song found an “encouraging factor” for joint development in the South China Sea was that several claimant states have experience in either joint development or cooperative development – the latter which involves ventures where countries are not necessarily involved in territorial disputes.
“The collective wisdom of these countries can and should be harnessed for the future joint development of the South China Sea,” Song said.
“Hence, if joint development was seen in economic rather than geopolitical terms, this could encourage claimant states to shelve their territorial disputes to pursue joint development,” she said. “However, this would require a spirit of reciprocity between the states: a diplomatic process of give-and-take on the basis of mutual respect and equality.”