Doubts over phase one trade deal as US-China ties ‘still in deep trouble’
- Jia Qingguo of Peking University told a forum in Singapore that bilateral ties are in ‘bad shape’ as the US seeks to contain China
- Tension in the South China Sea has also increased the possibility of military clashes and even a second cold war
That is the view of Jia Qingguo, one of Beijing’s top foreign policy experts and a professor of international studies at Peking University.
The visit has boosted optimism about a truce, even though the dates were only confirmed after long back-and-forth discussions that reflected substantial differences in how Beijing and Washington viewed the deal.
“[This] makes it impossible for the two countries to interact and benefit from interaction … It is bound to affect the trade relationship between the two countries,” he said.
Jia also felt it was “very unreasonable” for the US to demand that China buy its products in huge quantities, even though Beijing has made “concessions” such as agreeing in December to buy US$50 billion worth of agricultural goods for the suspension of some tariffs on Chinese products.
As such, a “whole deal” might not be hammered out, as the Chinese believed the US demands were “not about money but about life”.
“China’s patience is wearing thin. US wants not just some concession from China but to topple the Chinese government and contain China,” he said.
Jia explained that China’s ambitions had always been to rejuvenate its nation and economy – but inadvertently, the US felt challenged and has insisted the Chinese do things the American way, from political issues to those on the security front.
China has always maintained that the US has overstepped its boundaries in the region, with its regular patrols near the disputed islands.
Jia said the military tension in the seas had increased the likelihood of clashes, and raised the possibility of a second cold war. Analysts have previously warned a cold war could result from a decoupling of the two economies.
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To Jia, three factors need to be in play before talk of a cold war made sense: military confrontation, economic separation, and ideological rivalry.
“[US President Donald] Trump has not been able to decouple [our economies] as much as he may have wished. But the chance for China and the US to get into a cold war is increasing,” he said.
Jia suggested that the US-China conflict would worsen as America enters its election season later this year, adding that a harder stance on China had always benefited political parties.
This would eventually pose significant security challenges to countries in Southeast Asia, he said, urging nations to come together to hammer out a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea to remove a “major source” of potential confrontation.
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But David Shambaugh, a professor of Asian studies and director of the China Policy Programme at the George Washington University, disagreed.
Describing the US-China friction as “the new normal”, he said the US would be a positive example and not ask countries to take sides.
Shambaugh said it would be oversimplying things to describe international relations in the Indo-Pacific as just a “bipolar dyad” between the US and China, but acknowledged the strained US-China relationship had cast a “huge shadow” over the Asian region.
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He added that many believe a second cold war is emerging, and that Southeast Asia would be at the crux of the rivalry.
Shambaugh said Asean countries would want to maintain good relations with both sides to reap maximum benefits. “But this will not be so easy for them. While neither Beijing nor Washington are asking nations to choose one over the other … there nonetheless are considerable implicit pressures and inducements being pursued by both powers,” he said, citing how Beijing’s tentacles run deep for some countries in the region, such as Cambodia.
In wrapping up the dialogue, Jia hinted that China’s approach to the US would be measured compared to its stance on smaller countries in the region.
“When there is something that challenges China’s foreign interest and sovereignty, China’s reaction tends to be quite tough,” said the Chinese academic.
“But probably with the exception of the US. The US is too big to be treated the same way,” he said.