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Analysis | Can India and Indonesia team up to counter China in the Indo-Pacific?
- India and Indonesia can work together to strengthen norms of maritime behaviour that would cover the disputed South China Sea
- China is likely to resist the move, but, with careful diplomacy, Beijing could be encouraged to accept this emerging order
Reading Time:4 minutes
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No Indonesian president wants to wake up and find Chinese illegal fishing vessels flanked by the Chinese coastguard around the Natuna Islands at the edges of the South China Sea.
But last month, about 63 Chinese vessels made incursions into Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the north of the country, claiming “traditional fishing rights” as the basis for their presence.
In a scene that harked back to 2016, when President Joko Widodo held a cabinet meeting aboard a warship off the Natuna Islands during his first term, the leader travelled to the area on January 8 and stridently declared his country would not cede sovereignty to any actor.
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China’s ambassador to Indonesia attempted to ease tensions on Thursday by saying he was confident both sides could “properly manage the situation” but with no consequences for China, the conclusion one would draw is that even Southeast Asia’s largest state can be pushed around.
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This perception puts Widodo, better known as Jokowi, at risk of looking weak in his second, and final, term. And while plans are underway to mobilise 500 fishing vessels around the Natuna Islands to demonstrate the country’s sovereignty over the area, it is doubtful that this kind of deterrence will be successful or that it can be a viable long-term strategy.
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