“This man has been trying to impose martial law but until now could not find the right occasion,” said Santos. “He needed a certain emergency and, of course, the assent of the swing force, which is the military. So [until now] he could not do it.”

DUTERTE’S ROLEX 12?

Santos, a former chairman of the Centre for Media Freedom and Responsibility, said Duterte was exploiting the pandemic to carry out a different agenda, following in the footsteps of his role model Marcos, who had secretly formed a civil-military junta called the “Rolex 12” to plan martial law (the name derived from a widely held belief that Marcos had given the members Rolex watches – he had, in fact, given them Omegas).

In Duterte’s case, “if you look at the lead government offices fighting this pandemic, these are all headed – except for health – by former generals,” said Santos.

Among those with military backgrounds involved in battling the coronavirus are: defence secretary Delfin Lorenzana (a former army commander); social welfare secretary Rolando Bautista (a former army chief); interior and local governments secretary Eduardo Año, presidential peace process adviser Carlito Galvez Jnr and national security adviser Hermogenes Esperon (all retired Armed Forces chiefs); the office of civil defence administrator Ricardo Jalad (an ex-army officer); and information communications and technology secretary Gregorio Honasan (the ex-security chief of Marcos’ martial law administrator).

On Monday, Duterte’s spokesman Harry Roque shrugged off suggestions of a parallel with the Marcos era as “funny”. He denied Duterte was exploiting the crisis and insisted his actions were constitutional.

Roque’s denial came despite Duterte himself warning on Friday that he “might declare martial law and there will be no turning back” if lawless killings by the New People’s Army, the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines, continued.

The founding chairman of the communist party, Jose Maria Sison, is among those critics who have accused Duterte’s Inter-Agency Task Force against Covid-19 of being “similar to the Rolex 12” of Marcos.

Sison, who endured a week of waterboarding under Marcos, said the Covid task force was now working hand in hand with another task force Duterte had formed in 2019 to take on the communists (the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict).

Philippine police shoot army veteran dead as lockdown tensions mount

On April 19, the police arrested six members of the left-wing group Anakpawis who had been transporting relief goods, accusing them of breaking quarantine and carrying anti-Duterte “propaganda materials”.

Sison, a former political science professor who once taught Duterte, said the president was “using the [Covid task force] to undertake a de facto martial law regime in the name of fighting the coronavirus and to prepare the way for the formal declaration of martial law and the full imposition of a Marcos-type fascist dictatorship”.

JUST PARANOID?

The government has branded Sison paranoid but Duterte, on numerous visits to military camps, has repeatedly told soldiers that if they were tired of him or if something were to happen to him, he should be replace by a military junta.

For Earl Parreño, board trustee of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms and author of a controversial 2019 biography of Duterte, the president’s threat could mean he intends to impose martial law in areas where the New People’s Army operates or nationwide to stay in power.

Parreño said the first scenario was the most likely. “He’s tired [physically],” and besides, “the military is not solid behind that type of martial law” having learned its lesson from Marcos’ misrule.

A senior military officer agreed with Parreño’s assessment. He said maybe Duterte had been “frustrated” when he threatened martial law because despite a ceasefire, the New People’s Army had gunned down 15 soldiers, “that’s why he emphasised the fatalities”.

The officer doubted Duterte would impose martial rule nationwide, saying it was more likely to be implemented in guerilla zones.

“Besides,” he said, “how can you declare martial law if you think your own men are not for it?” Asked why not, he replied: “There was a time in history that the Armed Forces were a tool of martial law. Of course it gave a bad stigma to a lot of people … and many suffered.”

“What I can assure you, the military is professional, we won’t do such things. We will always follow democratic authority.”

Despite such reassurances, a leaked April 17 internal memo from the air force chief unsettled a lot of people. The memo referred to “[Duterte’s] latest pronouncement on a martial law-type role” of the police and military.

The air force chief was just being “overzealous”, the officer said.