Singapore election: what’s a strong win for the PAP in a season of coronavirus and political succession?

Name: Singapore to hold general elections on July 10, says PM after Covid-19 lockdown lifts
Uploaded: 2020-07-03T23:00:13.000Z
Duration: 1 min 15 s
Description: Singapore to hold general elections on July 10, says PM after Covid-19 lockdown lifts

With the People’s Action Party having taken 9 in 10 seats in every general election since independence, another victory seems assured

But in the trade-off between share of votes and share of Parliament seats, is there such a thing as winning too much?

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Singapore goes to the polls on July 10. Photo: EPA

Kok Xinghui

Published: 7:00am, 4 Jul 2020Updated: 3:07pm, 6 Jul 2020

Singapore’s ruling party, the People’s Action Party (PAP), has appealed for a “strong mandate” in Friday’s polls. It is an exhortation that may bewilder foreign observers, given the incumbent’s record of dominance.

The PAP, in power for the last six decades, has never lost more than one in 10 parliamentary seats in general elections held since independence in 1965, where its national vote share has yet to slip below 60 per cent – a showing that would leave other ruling parties in competitive democracies envious.

Before Parliament was dissolved on 30 June, the PAP held 83 of 89 elected seats. It received 69.9 per cent of the popular vote in the 2015 general election.

Ruling parties elsewhere are able to rule decisively and legitimately with far slimmer majorities, begging the question of how high the PAP’s numbers need to go before it feels it enjoys the confidence and trust of Singapore’s 2.65 million voters.

The PAP’s 60.1 per cent vote share and six-seat loss in 2011 – even though it did retain 93 per cent of parliamentary seats – was regarded as a major blow, while its 69.9 per cent score, again with six seats lost, was declared a landslide. Although constitutionally insignificant, such swings are symbolically important, translating into political capital for PAP leaders.

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Singapore to hold general elections on July 10, says PM after Covid-19 lockdown lifts

“These thresholds have come to indicate the relative degree of satisfaction with the PAP since it has been so overwhelmingly dominant for so long. This remains the case even though they have no practical effect on PAP governance and control,” said Chong Ja Ian, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore (NUS).

Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing, in a media interview in May, described a strong mandate as essential, given how the country with its economy battered by the coronavirus was facing “the challenge of an entire generation”.