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US-China relations
This Week in AsiaPolitics

US-China tensions: why Mongolia is in the middle of a new cold war

  • Spare a thought for ‘little’ Mongolia, population 3.3 million. It’s being pulled in all directions by three superpowers competing for influence over Eurasia
  • While America nurtures its democratic influence, China frets over America’s influence, and Russia tries to dilute China’s influence

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An election candidate speaks at a campaign event for the Mongolian People's Party in Ulan Bator. Mongolia is seen by some as “an oasis of democracy” in the region. Photo: AFP
Maria Siow
Having been sandwiched between superpowers in not just one cold war, but two, it wouldn’t be surprising if Mongolia were unwilling to repeat the experience a third time.
It might not seem an obvious candidate as a geopolitical power broker but the huge landlocked country, with a population of just 3.3 million, is in the middle of a three-way tug of war between the United States, China and Russia for influence over Eurasia. Its predicament was highlighted by the (not entirely welcome) overtures from Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov last month, when Moscow vowed to support Ulan Bator should it apply to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), though he was also quick to add that Russia has no intention to “influence the choice of our Mongolian friends”.
Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov. Photo: AFP
Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov. Photo: AFP
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While Mongolia has in the past expressed an interest in joining the Eurasian political, economic and security alliance – it gained “observer” status in 2004 – analysts say its desire to stay neutral in rising tensions between the US and China means it is likely to put any remaining SCO ambitions on ice.

Analysts say it fears being associated too closely with a grouping that has often been criticised as being anti-West and overly focused on security matters.

“Some Mongolians don’t want to be caught up in the old Cold War-style geopolitics,” said Mendee Jargalsaikhan, a postgraduate research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada. “Mongolia remembers its experience of being caught in the double cold war: between China versus the Soviet Union and the US versus the Soviet Union.”

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