AnalysisIndia takes lead in Maldives with US$500 million aid package but China is not out of the game

New Delhi’s decision to fund the infrastructure project in the archipelagic nation comes amid its game of brinkmanship with Beijing

But India’s ties to the Maldives remain secure – based on their proximity, the former’s provision of security and the latter’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean

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The Maldives’ President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih embraces India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi during Solih’s November 2018 inauguration in Male. Photo: AFP

Published: 3:30pm, 19 Aug 2020Updated: 4:24pm, 19 Aug 2020

India’s US$500 million economic aid package for the Maldives, announced last week, comes in the middle of a game of brinkmanship between New Delhi and Beijing as they seek to establish dominance in South Asia.

The Maldives is the smallest country in Asia by both size and population, but the archipelagic nation is strategically located in the Indian Ocean – where it has in the past served as a diplomatic battleground for China and India.

Regionally, the assistance from New Delhi is widely seen as an attempt to consolidate its position in a country where it had until recently been banished to the margins by a pro-Beijing government. But the “India-first” policy of President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih – who defeated the pro-China incumbent Abdulla Yameen in the 2018 elections – has reversed the line pursued by his predecessor and restored New Delhi’s traditional influence in the Maldives.

While India is undoubtedly back in the game, opinion is divided as to whether China has truly been marginalised on the Maldivian stage – with some arguing Beijing might be down but not out in Male’s political calculus.

“How things pan out will depend on developments in Maldivian domestic politics,” said N. Sathiya Moorthy, distinguished fellow and head of the Chennai Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation.

He said the Solih government might welcome Chinese investment, but it would not entertain any move that threatened India’s security and destabilised the waters the South Asian nations shared with neighbouring Sri Lanka.

Solih and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi have met four times, twice in each other’s capital, sparking an intensive set of engagements between the two sides to cement ties and deepen cooperation in a wide range of areas.