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Is an India-Vietnam military alliance about to clash with a China-Pakistan one?

  • Chinese actions in the South China Sea have pushed together Hanoi and New Delhi in a partnership experts liken to the Beijing-Islamabad alliance
  • ‘India seeks to do to China what China has done to India: that is, containment and encirclement’, analyst says

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Freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is central to India’s vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. Photo: Bloomberg

When the Chinese navy carried out drills almost simultaneously in four sea regions this week, many were awed by the show of force – but few questioned the intended audience.

Experts were near unanimous in viewing the drills – in the South China Sea, East China Sea, the northern Yellow Sea and the Bohai Gulf – as Beijing’s response to what it sees as increased belligerence from the United States. Washington has recently sent aircraft carriers to the South China Sea, sailed a destroyer through the Taiwan Strait, flown reconnaissance aircraft and B-1B bombers over the region and sided with Southeast Asian nations in their territorial disputes with China.

As Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor of politics at Shanghai’s East China Normal University, put it: “China is facing an escalating risk of President Donald Trump sparking an incident in the South China Sea, possibly involving Taiwan.”
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The message China’s drills sent in response was clear: while China does not want a war with the US, if one comes it is ready and able to fight – and on multiple fronts if need be.

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Hong Kong-based warship joins drill in South China Sea

Hong Kong-based warship joins drill in South China Sea
But while the intended audience may have been Washington, the show of force also had an effect on nations much closer to home. In particular, analysts say, it has encouraged a developing military partnership between Vietnam and India – a partnership many experts see as being aimed at countering China in much the same way as the China-Pakistan alliance is seen as countering India.

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