Japan’s next PM: with Abe gone, could Suga hit sweet spot between China, US?
- Yoshihide Suga appears likely to succeed Abe as a ‘continuity candidate’ after winning the support of major factions in the ruling party
- But not much is known about his policies on China or the US, and analysts view the government spokesman to be a politician who ‘lacks charisma’
The next leader faces a raft of major issues, including the coronavirus pandemic and its associated economic fallout, the fate of the Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan’s ties with the US in the run-up to the American presidential election, and a troubled relationship with South Korea.
Stephen Nagy, an associate professor of international relations at Tokyo’s International Christian University, said one of the earliest tests of Suga’s diplomatic skills may come in relation to an increasingly assertive China.
“Japan’s broad approach towards China has been to balance accommodation with Beijing with security, and integrating the Japanese economy into those of its neighbours in the rest of Asia,” Nagy said.
“Suga will continue that approach, balancing the push and pull factors, but making sure that he is not bullied by Beijing,” he said. “This has essentially been Abe’s way of managing Japan’s security with its economic needs, and I see no reason why Suga would move away from that because it has, over the years, accrued substantial benefits to Japan.”
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Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigns for health reasons
Nagy said China was likely to refrain from immediately testing the new administration over long-standing issues, including the South and East China seas, because being “overly aggressive” might have the effect of driving Japan closer to the United States.