Beijing’s South China Sea talks with Asean are worse off than it’s letting on, experts say

Name: The South China Sea dispute explained
Uploaded: 2020-09-18T10:45:08.000Z
Duration: 3 min 23 s
Description: The South China Sea dispute explained

China is confident it will be able to wrap up talks for a code of conduct in the disputed waters, even as the coronavirus has delayed negotiations

But with recent stand-offs and Southeast Asian states ramping up their claims, an amicable resolution looks farther away than before, analysts say

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Protesters rally on June 18, 2019 to condemn an incident that involved a Chinese fishing vessel hitting a Filipino fishing boat. Photo: AP

Bhavan Jaipragas

Published: 6:45pm, 18 Sep 2020Updated: 3:54pm, 20 Sep 2020

China may be sounding optimistic notes over an early conclusion of its ongoing talks with Asean for a code of conduct in the disputed South China Sea, but regional scholars of the row say they are far less buoyant that the accord is within reach.

Speaking in a webinar on Friday, the Southeast Asian researchers suggested instead that the talks’ suspension due to the coronavirus pandemic meant Beijing now lacked the use of the ongoing negotiations as a “pretext” for saying all was well in the sea dispute.

With recent stand-offs in the waters, as well as Southeast Asian claimants ramping up “lawfare” tactics of citing international maritime law to press their respective cases – much to Beijing’s annoyance – an amicable resolution looks farther away than before, the analysts said.

The 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) have long viewed a legally binding and enforceable code of conduct (COC) as the best course of action for peace in the waters in the midst of their powerful neighbour’s claim of jurisdiction of almost the whole sea.

Beijing’s “nine-dash line” claim – making up some 85 per cent of the sea – overlaps the exclusive economic zones of Asean members Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia and the Philippines.

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The South China Sea dispute explained

Hoang Thi Ha, among the six speakers in the discussion organised by Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and the city state’s East Asian Institute, said even without the pandemic, Beijing’s hope to conclude the code of conduct talks by 2021 would still be “an improbable target – ‘aspirational’ as Asean would say”.