Why Russia’s getting involved in the China-India border dispute
- Moscow is keen to regain its influence in South Asia, which has been on the wane since its invasion of Afghanistan and the fall of the Soviet Union
- Vladimir Putin has a vision of a Russia-led ‘Greater Eurasia’ community of nations – and for this to work, it needs to play ball with both Beijing and Delhi
Could Russia side with the US and India against China?
Suddenly, Moscow found itself once again on the centre stage of geopolitics – and in case there were any doubts, there was even an official photo shoot featuring Lavrov with his Indian and Chinese counterparts, S. Jaishankar and Wang Yi, standing either side of him.
Observers say Russia’s eagerness to facilitate the talks should be seen as its latest move to raise its profile in South Asia.
Border dispute: what’s at stake for Russia as it mediates between China and India?
To some minds, the scenes were reminiscent of another win for Moscow in November two years ago, when it hosted an 11-country dialogue aimed at bringing peace to Afghanistan (ironically to some critics, given the Soviet history).
On that occasion, the Russian initiative was aimed at countering an attempt by the US to cut Moscow out of the Afghan dialogue. Outmanoeuvring Washington, Moscow succeeded in involving all the countries affected by Afghanistan’s instability in an effort to find a solution and emerged with great diplomatic credit in the process. Significantly, among the countries Russia engaged in the talks was India.
For P.S. Raghavan, chairman of India’s National Security Advisory Board and India’s ambassador to Russia from 2014 to 2016, “Russia’s engagement with South Asia has both tactical and strategic elements”.
Tactically, said Raghavan, Russia’s engagement in Afghanistan was meant to counter American and Western pressure along the country’s perimeter. Moscow believed the US was trying to destabilise Russia by encouraging Islamic State militants to leave Afghanistan and move to Central Asia, he said.
02:53
China-India border dispute: China frees detained Indians after sides agree to ‘quickly disengage’
A GREATER EURASIA
But Russia’s broader, strategic aim was to bring about Putin’s vision for Russia to play a bigger role in global affairs as the leader of a “Greater Eurasia” community of nations, Raghavan said. To do this, Russia realised it needed to draw nations that were once adversaries into a cooperative relationship. “It recognises that both India and China are critical to this effort,” he said.
Russian wariness of Beijing’s hegemonic tendencies dates back to the 1960s and 1970s, when the two were locked in a contest to be the world’s leading socialist society. However, Raghavan said, US and European sanctions had pushed Russia into its tight embrace of China. Meanwhile, its overtures to New Delhi were because it realised that “without India, there can be no Eurasian partnership”.
As part of its vision, Russia has also reached out to most other South Asian nations, barring Bhutan, which has diplomatic relations with none of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.
China-India border dispute: army says it thwarted Chinese bid to alter status quo
“Our country’s policy is to engage all major powers,” said Masrur Reaz, of the Policy Exchange of Bangladesh think tank. “As long as it helps Bangladesh, we welcome [Russian involvement].”
In Nepal, Russia is hoping to cooperate with the country’s hydroenergy sector and has supplied it with M-17 helicopters that are well-suited to the mountainous region. The two countries are also exploring investment and joint ventures in sectors beyond energy.
“Russia’s presence in South Asia has always been strong, centred around India,” said former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal. He pointed out that India has long been the biggest buyer of Russian arms, and the two countries have held regular military exercises on land and at sea and annual summit meetings since 2000. Energy is also an area of expanding cooperation.
Russian leaders saw the 21st century as an Asian one that would bring great opportunities for Moscow to do business and invest in South Asia and vice versa, added Kupriyanov.
Russia hopes for joint exploration of energy and minerals in Nepal and infrastructure development in Sri Lanka and seeks to expand cooperation with India – which has already invested US$1 billion in Russia’s “far east” – into areas beyond energy.
02:04
New video shows clash between Indian and Chinese troops on border
OVERTURES TO PAKISTAN
“What is new now is Russia’s overtures to Pakistan,” said Sibal.
The hope is that they can return to the sort of partnership they enjoyed in 1965, when Moscow brokered peace in Tashkent after the India-Pakistan war and was involved in numerous infrastructure projects in Pakistan.
Russia also carries out military exercises with Pakistan and claims engaging Pakistan will help it prevent terrorism spreading westwards from Afghanistan to Central Asia. While Sibal argued that this could be an attempt to promote reconciliation in Afghanistan, he said New Delhi was concerned that its rival Pakistan would draw Moscow more deeply into South Asian politics.
Others in India argue that the arms cooperation between Russia and India cannot be compared with that between Russia and Pakistan. They point to the Indo-Russian-developed BrahMos missile that can strike any Pakistani city, or the S-400 air defence system India is buying from Russia that will enable it to intercept any missile, aircraft or drone coming from Pakistani air space and gives it a clear advantage over its long-term rival.
Russia has also supported India’s decision to revoke the special status and limited autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir while China has strongly opposed this and backed Pakistan on the matter.
INDIA, A NATURAL ALLY
However, given the extensive interests of both the US and China in the region, balancing the two is no easy task.
Russia romances Southeast Asia with trade and arms, but it’s no match for China
Meanwhile, the US has significant links with India as part of its maritime Indo-Pacific strategy that some believe is aimed at containing China. However, Raghavan said these links did not extend to the Eurasian land mass.
“This is where Russia comes in,” he said. “We share the same land mass and very complex Russia-India-China dynamics.”
Raghavan said that while Russia was committed to supplying India with the latest military technologies, it took care that this did not spoil its strategic partnership with China. While Russia saw the two relationships as mutually beneficial, he said that it did not want to be seen as China’ junior partner.
Its relationship with India highlighted its role as an independent actor in the region, “free from Chinese apron strings”, he said. ■