Japan’s new PM seen balancing US-China ties, despite calls for closer relations with Beijing

Yoshihide Suga has confirmed he will be leaning on predecessor Shinzo Abe for advice and guidance as he admits to international relations inexperience
But if ruling party secretary general Toshihiro Nikai got his way, Japan and China would work together to achieve ‘world peace and prosperity’

Japan

Julian Ryall

Published: 7:05pm, 21 Sep 2020

Why you can trust SCMP

Japan’s new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga appears set to attempt his predecessor’s US-China balancing act when it comes to international relations, despite his ruling party’s secretary general pushing for closer ties with Beijing.

Toshihiro Nikai, who has served as the Liberal Democratic Party’s administrative chief since 2016, has long been an advocate of building bridges with Beijing, analysts say – even as bilateral ties became frayed in the latter years of former prime minister Shinzo Abe’s administration.

Yoshihide Suga: who is Japan’s new prime minister?

Late last week, he spoke at a lecture hosted by Shigeru Ishiba, a fellow party member who ran to replace Abe as prime minister and is also in favour of better China relations.

“The relationship between Japan and China has been through a long winter, but now it is absolutely certain that springtime has arrived,” Nikai said, adding that he hoped “from the bottom of my heart” that Chinese President Xi Jinping would be able to pay a state visit to Japan soon – and that a pact could be signed defining the two countries’ relationship “to achieve world peace and prosperity led by Japan and China together”.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, centre, had been set to visit Japan in the spring. Photo: Xinhua

Xi had been set to visit Japan in the spring, but this was delayed as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. A number of LDP members have since demanded that the state visit be cancelled outright in protest at the passage of Hong Kong’s National Security Law in July and the subsequent crackdown on pro-democracy activists in the city.

By his own admission, Suga is not well versed in international relations and has confirmed that he will be leaning on his predecessor for advice and guidance.

Which means that Nikai’s ambitions for closer China-Japan ties are unlikely to be realised any time soon, according to Yoichi Shimada, an international-relations professor at Fukui Prefectural University.

“I do not believe Nikai will have very much influence on the Suga administration, and I think the main reason for that is the strongly pro-US attitude in the cabinet and Washington’s firm stance towards China,” he said, adding that the new prime minister may even use his predecessor as an unofficial special envoy on matters of particular sensitivity, such as the question of Japanese nationals abducted by North Korea.

Suga has made it clear that he sees himself as a novice in this area [of foreign policy]

Hiromi Murakami, political-science professor

“Abe had a very good relationship with President [Donald] Trump as well as the rest of the US Congress and Suga clearly intends to continue Abe’s approach to dealing with the US,” Shimada said.

Underlining Suga’s desire for continued good relations with the US, he spoke with Trump by phone on Sunday evening, reiterating the importance of the US-Japan security alliance as the cornerstone of Tokyo’s foreign policy.

His appointment of Nobuo Kishi, Abe’s similarly hawkish brother, has also been seen as a sign of the former prime minister’s determination to keep a hand in the day-to-day running of the country, with influence over Suga’s policy direction.

“Suga has made it clear that he sees himself as a novice in this area [of foreign policy] and I am sure that he will listen to Nikai, but Abe clearly has a close interest in foreign affairs so I expect to see more of Abe’s policies continued,” said Hiromi Murakami, a political-science professor at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

Shinzo Abe, centre, pictured during his visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo while still prime minister in 2013. Photo: Reuters

Abe on Saturday made his first visit since 2013 to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine in central Tokyo to pay his respects to Japan’s war dead.

The visit, which came just days after relinquishing power, could elicit protests from other countries as it did in 2013, Murakami said, but as “Abe is no longer prime minister … he can do as he wishes”.

Shimada, the international-relations professor, said: “Obviously he has wanted to go for many years, but he came under so much pressure, particularly from Japan’s business world, after his 2013 visit that it became impossible”.

“But I don’t think that can have much influence on international politics at this stage,” Shimada said, adding that Suga has rarely shown “strong opinions” on matters of national history and is unlikely to visit the shrine himself while in office.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in. Photo: Yonhap/DPA

Meanwhile, South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s office said on Monday that it had received a letter from Suga expressing hopes for improved relations amid strained ties over history and trade.

Feuds dating back to Japan’s 1910-45 colonial rule of Korea continue to dog bilateral relations, with ties further soured after South Korea’s Supreme Court ordered a Japanese steelmaker to pay compensation for wartime forced labour in 2018, which prompted Tokyo to impose export curbs on some key hi-tech materials.

National security law: could Japan or South Korea take Hong Kong’s finance crown?

In a letter delivered to Moon on Saturday, Suga underscored the need for cooperation between the two neighbours, Moon’s spokesman Kang Min-seok said.

“Prime Minister Suga in particular said he hoped the two countries overcome difficult issues and build a forward-looking relationship,” Kang told a briefing.

Moon also sent a congratulatory letter to Suga last week, saying he was willing to sit down anytime to improve relations and foster diplomatic, economic and people-to-people exchanges.

Additional reporting by Reuters

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Suga likely to maintain US-China balance

Post