Sri Lanka seeks to balance India ties even as China presence grows

India’s PM Modi is set to meet his Sri Lankan counterpart in a virtual summit to reset ties, which have dipped amid China’s growing presence in the island
While Colombo has recently been pivoting back to New Delhi, this process is likely to speed up as the pandemic ravages Sri Lanka’s economy, observers say

China-Sri Lanka relations

Pranay Sharma

Published: 12:00pm, 25 Sep 2020

Why you can trust SCMP

Colombo’s “India First Policy”, a coronavirus economic assistance plan and intelligence-sharing efforts are likely to be on the agenda of a virtual summit between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and newly-elected Sri Lankan counterpart Mahinda Rajapaksa, analysts said.

The meeting on Saturday – which marks the first summit between India and a South Asian neighbour – represents a chance for both sides to “comprehensively review” their “time-tested” friendship, said India’s foreign ministry, at a time China’s presence in the Indian Ocean nation is growing.

Delhi-Colombo relations have soured in recent years, as the island began seeking closer ties with Beijing under Mahinda Rajapaksa’s presidency, during which he accepted several projects under the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.

Mahinda Rajapaksa, left, and his brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Photo: AP

While President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa have in the past year signalled a reset to its ties with India, this process is likely to speed up as the coronavirus pandemic ravages Sri Lanka’s economy, observers said.

Last November, Gotabaya Rajapaksa made New Delhi his first bilateral visit after he assumed the position. In February, Mahinda Rajapaksa made a four-day visit to India – a gesture reciprocated by Modi when he became the first foreign leader to congratulate Mahinda Rajapaksa on his re-election as premier in August.

On September 17, the brothers called Modi up to send him good wishes on his 70th birthday.

“India wants to maintain the momentum created by the quick visits and congratulatory messages,” said Ranjan Mathai, a former Indian foreign secretary. “The Sri Lankans are also signalling they are serious about the relationship with Delhi.”

Can Sri Lanka avoid getting caught up in China-India rivalry?

Last month, Sri Lanka announced its “India First Policy” – a reiteration of its commitment not to allow a third country to use its land or waters for anti-Indian activities.

Launched in the midst of the pandemic, “the India First Policy has both short- and medium-term implications”, Mathai said, with Sri Lanka keen to restart its economy while pivoting back to India.

Although no country was mentioned in the policy, China was the elephant in the room.

Sino-Sri Lankan relations have been flourishing since 2009, when China armed Sri Lanka with weapons in the conflict against the Tamil Tigers rebel group.

Beijing has also invested in multiple infrastructure projects over the past few years. It has spent over US$15 billion between 2005 to 2015, according to a report by Mumbai-based thinktank Gateway House, on projects such as highways, airports, naval ports and townships – sparking fears the country risked falling into a Chinese debt-trap.

In 2017, after Sri Lanka failed to repay a debt, China gained control of the Hambantota port in Colombo on a 99-year lease for US$1.2 billion.

The Hambantota port in Colombo. Photo: AFP

As the Covid-19 pandemic weakens global connectivity, Colombo is likely to want to maintain good ties with New Delhi, which has in the past supported Sri Lanka by deploying quick assistance during crises, Mathai said.

India in July signed a US$400 million currency swap arrangement with Sri Lanka to boost the island’s foreign reserves. Both sides are discussing how to extend that amount to help Colombo cope with the Covid-19 crisis.

Mathai, the former Indian foreign secretary, said if India and China came through on debt deferment for Sri Lanka, it could convince other creditors to cooperate with Colombo.

“India’s relation in Sri Lanka is multi-faceted and is not limited to responding to what China is doing,” said Ashok Kantha, a former Indian high commissioner to Sri Lanka.

India’s engagement in the country ranges from defence and security to trade, business, education and culture. Bilateral trade was US$4.19 billion in the past year until November 2019.

Did Japan and India just launch a counter to China’s Belt and Road?

India has invested some US$1.2 billion in Sri Lanka, and given US$3.45 billion in developmental assistance including US$560 million in grants, according to the Indian government’s official website.

Among the projects it has backed is a US$350 million project to build 50,000 homes for Indian-origin people, mostly Tamils, and war-affected and estate workers in the plantation areas in the Northern and Eastern provinces.

In June this year, a national ambulance service was launched thanks to funding by New Delhi. India also recently announced plans to set up a solar park to improve power facilities in Sri Lanka.

India is also a joint partner with Japan in the Colombo Port’s Eastern Container Terminal, viewed by some to be a rival to China’s belt and road aims in the country. The project is likely to be discussed during the summit.

Police officers at the scene of a church was targeted in a bomb attack in April 2019. Photo: Reuters

The sharing of intelligence is an area which has increased in importance for Sri Lanka after the terror attack on Easter Sunday last year, which killed 359 people and wounded more than 500.

The government admitted to a “major intelligence lapse”, after it emerged that Indian intelligence agents had warned their Sri Lankan counterparts weeks ahead of the bomb blasts, but the messages were not shared by the authorities.

“We have to take responsibility because unfortunately if the sharing of the intelligence information had been given to the right people, I think that at least this could have been avoided or even minimised,” Deputy Defence Minister Ruwan Wijewardene said after the bombing.

Easter Sunday blasts: Sri Lanka defence official resigns over security failures

Domestically, Sri Lankans have an expectation that India would help the country deal with ethnic tensions between ethnic Sinhalese and the country’s Tamil minority.

“Post-election, there is a renewed demand from the Tamil polity in Sri Lanka for India’s intervention to resolve the ethnic issue,” says N. Sathiya Moorthy, chair of the Observer Research Foundation’s Chennai initiative.

New Delhi is in favour of a negotiated political settlement, acceptable to all communities within the framework of a united Sri Lanka and which is consistent with democracy, pluralism and respect for human rights.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Colombo seeks right balance with delhi

Post