China’s shadow looms as New Caledonia decides whether to leave France
- The Pacific island territory will hold its second vote on whether to go its own way, after the first referendum in 2018 saw 57 per cent vote to remain
- With China increasingly making its presence felt in the region, there are fears that New Caledonia could fall under its influence
The former penal colony, which is reliant on Paris for about US$1.5 billion in funding annually, has an agreement with France for up to three referendums – each held two years apart – on the question of independence. In the first poll in 2018, close to 57 per cent of voters chose to stay with France.
New Caledonia gets most of the rest of its funding from the sale of nickel deposits to China, which is one of its strongest trading partners. In 2018, New Caledonia’s exports to China totalled US$1.06 billion, more than its combined exports to all other countries. The overseas territory also has one of the highest GDPs per capita in the Pacific region, at around US$38,270 in 2018.
The cost of cutting ties with France would likely hit hard. Anti-independence leaders have used the economic aspect to sway voters, claiming that New Caledonia would become a “Chinese colony” if it gained independence.
“People talk about China. They say if we are no longer French, we will be Chinese. It’s the fear that China will be everywhere in the world,” said Dr Catherine Ris, director of the Research Centre on Economics and Law at the University of New Caledonia.
