Japan PM Suga to skip US, plans to visit Indonesia, Vietnam for first trip abroad
- Analysts described the two countries as ‘straightforward’ destinations for Suga’s first overseas trip as prime minister, and he is expected to receive a warm reception in both
- His plans are seen as a bid to strengthen a diplomatic alliance against Beijing, given that all three countries share concerns about China’s encroachment into territorial waters they claim as their own
Given the broader economic and security concerns of the region, some had anticipated that Suga might opt to follow in the footsteps of many previous Japanese leaders, using his symbolic first foreign trip to travel to Washington and reiterate the importance of a trans-Pacific alliance that dates back to 1945.
That Suga has opted for two countries in Southeast Asia underlines their importance in his regional strategy, but also indicates a desire to distance Japan from the political squabbles that are erupting in the run-up to the US presidential election next month.
Yoshihide Suga: who is Japan’s new prime minister?
They also point out that Abe visited Vietnam on his first foreign trip upon the start of his second administration, and that Suga appears to be following closely in his predecessor’s footsteps on foreign policy.
“These are two countries that Japan sees as sharing its concerns about China and sharing support for Japan’s vision of a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’,” said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.
Kingston said Suga would get a warm reception in both countries, and pointed out that Japan has provided significant amounts of aid to develop infrastructure in Indonesia, including on a new high-speed rail link between the capital, Jakarta, and Surabaya in East Java.
Railway projects have been in headlines in Indonesia in recent months after a line being constructed from Jakarta to Bandung by a consortium of Chinese rail companies fell behind schedule and accrued significant cost overruns. I t was meant to be operational in 2019 but that has now been put back to 2021.
The Indonesian government, which had initially rejected Tokyo’s proposal on the Jakarta-to-Surabaya line in favour of the rival bid put forward by Beijing, eventually turned back to Japan to helm the project.
Can post-Abe Japan leave China’s shadow to lead Asia?
Much has been made in local media about the growing negative sentiment towards the China-led Bandung-to Jakarta rail project, including over the use of labourers brought in from China instead of local workers, the potential debt trap and environmental issues.
Similarly, Tokyo announced a US$348 million deal in August under which it will construct six new patrol vessels for Vietnam’s coastguard.
That deal is seen as tacit support for Vietnam’s position in its ongoing disagreements with China over shoals and atolls in the South China Sea. Indonesia has also had run-ins with Beijing, with Chinese government vessels encroaching on its territorial waters around the Natuna Sea, something that Tokyo hopes will encourage Jakarta to side with it on the issue of the sovereignty of the disputed territories.
“Vietnam has been one of the main recipients of Japanese [aid] in the last 20 years, while Tokyo has also been worried about the diplomatic inroads that China has made into Indonesia,” Kingston said, adding that Suga’s visit is in part designed to cement a united front against Beijing.
Abe went out of his way to make Vietnam a key component of his regional foreign policy, signing the Japan-Vietnam Economic Partnership in 2006 and gradually upgrading that into a broader strategic alliance. Significantly, Vietnam was the first country Abe visited after being re-elected in December 2012.
06:24
Explained: the history of China’s territorial disputes
From 2014 to 2018, Japan granted around US$280 million in aid to assist infrastructure development, human resources management and environmental and governance practices in Vietnam, making Tokyo the nation’s largest ODA donor. Equally, Vietnam has become a priority destination for direct investment under Japan’s Partnership for Quality Infrastructure Initiative – which make an appealing alternative to China’s loans.
Suga is clearly keen to build on the already firm foundations of both these relationships.
Go Ito, a professor of international relations at Meiji University in Tokyo, believes Suga will use the trip to step out of Abe’s shadow.
“Suga is lacking in a lot of colour in his policies so this will be a chance to show these countries, and others, what he is like,” he said. “Abe was very outgoing in his approach to foreign affairs but also very conservative in his policies, so Suga can show that he is pursuing a different path and that he wants to make a major contribution to Southeast Asia.”
Nevertheless, Ito believes Suga will want to establish Japan as a nation that observes international rules on territory and to serve as the arbiter of maritime disputes in the region, positioned between the states of Southeast Asia and China.
He also played down the significance of Suga not choosing to travel to the United States for his first diplomatic mission.
“The US is in the midst of an election battle and that will last for the next month, so while it was important for him to go overseas early on in his administration, it was wise not to go to Washington,” he said.
Japan PM seen balancing US-China ties, despite calls for Beijing pivot
