Explainer | As India-China border stand-off endures, a fear: Ladakh is the new Kashmir

As winter descends, some expect the India-China disputed border to become like the India-Pakistan one: a permanently contested militarised zone

After five months and at least 18 rounds of talks, hopes of a breakthrough are receding, but a BRICS meeting featuring Xi and Modi offers a glimmer of hope

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Military trucks carrying supplies move towards forward areas in the Ladakh region. Photo: Reuters

Published: 10:22pm, 12 Oct 2020Updated: 12:47am, 13 Oct 2020

Five months into a stand-off on their disputed Himalayan border, India and China may need to face an uncomfortable new reality – that the ‘roof of the world’ could become a permanently contested militarised zone much like disputed Kashmir, an area once dubbed by former US president Bill Clinton as the “most dangerous place in the world”.

As bitter winter descends in eastern Ladakh, where thousands of troops from the two countries have been facing off since May, India and China are preparing for an enduring stalemate, having failed to make a breakthrough despite at least 18 rounds of military and diplomatic talks as well as high-level political engagements.

While the Indian army has been working to ease the logistical woes of stationing thousands of troops in the freezing conditions, China’s People’s Liberation Army has equipped its soldiers with thermal shelters.

On Monday, Corps Commanders from the two sides met for the seventh time to discuss ways of disengaging troops and de-escalating tensions on the ground at Chushul, on the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border separating the two countries in the Ladakh region. The talks were continuing at the time of writing.

Military veterans and analysts believe the winter preparations by both sides are indications of a stalemate and that a volatile, militarised LAC resembling the Line of Control (LOC) dividing India and Pakistan will emerge.

The 740km (450-mile) LOC, in the central and western part of Jammu & Kashmir state, marked the positions of the Indian and Pakistani forces when a ceasefire was announced in a 13-day war between the two countries in December 1971. Despite the ceasefire, the LOC has remained violent and bloody, and is often referred to as one of the most heavily militarised regions in the world.