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A US Navy First Fleet in the Indian Ocean, based out of Singapore? Not likely, analysts say

  • The US Navy Secretary’s proposal raised eyebrows among observers, who say the plan is a ‘trial balloon’ that is unlikely to garner immediate regional support
  • Locating a US naval base in Singapore is also seen as a tricky proposition given the island nation’s efforts to not take a side between Beijing and Washington

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An F/A-18E Super Hornet manoeuvres on the flight deck of the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier. Photo: US Pacific Fleet
Asian maritime analysts have described Washington’s out-of-the-blue proposal to raise a new United States navy fleet in Asia, potentially based out of Singapore, as a unilateral “trial balloon” by the outgoing Trump administration – one that is unlikely to garner immediate support from the region or President-elect Joe Biden without further scrutiny.

While Asian countries have by and large continued to welcome the American forward presence as a vital hedge against China, observers said the introduction of a new permanent US base in the region would cause much more alarm in Beijing than governments in the neighbourhood could stomach.

Singapore’s defence ministry told This Week in Asia there had not been fresh talks with the US on the deployment of additional warships there.
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It would be deemed unacceptable for the island nation – among Washington’s key strategic partners in Southeast Asia – to host a permanent US naval base, as it worked “assiduously” to repel the impression that it was in a formal military alliance with Washington, said Singapore-based regional security expert Collin Koh.

“I believe a Biden administration would exercise greater caution towards regional political sensitivities to properly review [the proposal] with US allies and partners, if not scrapping the plan outright come next January,” he said.

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Olli Pekka Suorsa, a colleague of Koh at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), said he believed the proposal appeared to be “merely a thought exercise” meant to serve as a signal from the US to Beijing of its “long-term intentions and determination to compete with China”.
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