China’s Wang Yi heads to Tokyo to ‘test the waters’ with Japan PM Yoshihide Suga

Beijing wants to assess if Japan’s new leader shares ex-PM Shinzo Abe’s position on containing China, analysts say
Wang Yi’s Tokyo trip comes as Japanese perceptions of China decline but survey respondents from both sides want to build better bilateral ties

Japan

Maria Siow

Published: 3:00pm, 23 Nov 2020

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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Japan on Tuesday is widely seen by analysts as an attempt by Beijing to gain a deeper understanding of the new Japanese administration, and an opportunity for China to pull Japan closer into its embrace given current uncertainties surrounding American foreign policy.

But the visit is also unlikely to dilute major differences between the two regional powers, analysts noted, adding that it was uncertain whether Wang could nail down a date for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s much-delayed trip to Japan.

Wang will be the first high-ranking Chinese official to hold talks with Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga since the former chief cabinet secretary took office in September, and the first to visit Japan since Politburo member Yang Jiechi, one of China‘s top diplomats, in February.

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Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of international political economy at the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Public Policy, said Wang wants “to test the waters” to find out how different Suga is compared with former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe.

Wang is likely to raise Japan’s Indo-Pacific strategy with Suga to assess if the new prime minister shares Abe’s views on containing China, Suzuki added. In recent weeks, the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy – which is being pushed by Japan, the US, Australia and India as the centrepiece of their Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, and is aimed chiefly at countering China in the region – has gained momentum, especially since foreign ministers from the four countries met last month in Tokyo.

Wang is also expected to push forward a trilateral free-trade agreement between Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul during his trip, which includes a stop in South Korea. The trip comes on the heels of the signing of the world’s biggest free-trade pact, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, by 15 Asia-Pacific economies, led by China and Japan.

Yoshikazu Kato, an adjunct associate professor at the University of Hong Kong’s Asia Global Institute, said Wang’s visit also gives Beijing the chance to ensure that its relations with Tokyo remain on an even keel given the ongoing uncertainties surrounding US-China relations.

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“China hopes to bring Japan, a US ally, closer into its embrace, so as to ensure the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region,” Kato said, adding that Beijing is expected to remain vigilant on the Quad and the Indo-Pacific strategy.

“The interests and positions of Japan and China [on the Quad and Indo-Pacific] are conflicting and contradictory. The possibility of reaching consensus and narrowing their differences during Wang’s visit is almost zero.”

Kim Beng Phar, founder and CEO of the Kuala Lumpur-based Strategic Pan Indo-Pacific Arena think tank, said that Japan’s Quad-based balancing strategy towards China is likely to remain in place because of its attractiveness to Japanese voters and the need for Suga to call an election by November next year.

Liu Qingbin, an associate professor at Yokohama National University in Japan, said that China’s relations with the two other countries in the Quad – India and Australia – had also suffered because of the pact.

“The Quad was only at a nascent stage last year but had consolidated this year due to Washington taking the lead against the backdrop of Sino-US trade tensions and confrontation,” Liu said.

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However, if China and Japan are able to undertake major progress in trade, politics and defence during Wang’s visit, Liu said that Beijing might be able to minimise or even “break the [Quad] encirclement”, especially since the incoming US administration of Joe Biden will be busy focusing its attention on tackling the coronavirus pandemic.

Kato said Xi’s planned visit to Japan is unlikely to occur unless Beijing shows greater military restraint in the East China Sea and in its dealings with Hong Kong.

In recent months, Chinese coastguard ships have increased their maritime activities near the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, which China claims sovereignty over and calls the Diaoyu Islands.

Since the imposition of the national security law on Hong Kong earlier this year, many countries including Japan have expressed concerns on Beijing’s clampdown on dissent in the former British colony.

Kato said it was unlikely that China would make concessions on the East China Sea, as being assertive on territorial issues is “part of China‘s efforts in promoting major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics and realising the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.

Japan PM seen balancing US-China ties, despite calls for Beijing pivot

In an annual public opinion survey recently conducted by the two countries, 75.2 per cent of Chinese respondents believed China and Japan should build a new cooperative relationship to realise the stable development of the world economy and safeguard peace in East Asia, while only 44.6 per cent felt likewise in Japan.

Suzuki said this difference in public opinion was partly down to “the discourses in the US where many strong anti-China rhetoric emerged not only from the Donald Trump camp but also from the Joe Biden camp as well”.

China’s effort in handling the coronavirus pandemic was also a factor in contributing to negative public opinion in Japan, Suzuki said, as some Japanese believed that Beijing could have done more in curbing the spread of Covid-19 after it first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan.

China’s ongoing naval activities in the East China Sea, as well as Beijing’s recent policies in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, have also contributed to the negative Japanese public sentiment of China, Suzuki noted.

“Agnes Chow, the Hong Kong democratic activist who speaks Japanese, is well appreciated in Japan,” Suzuki added, pointing out that her arrest under the controversial National Security Law in Hong Kong in August had given “China a bad image”.

The results of the survey, which was conducted by the China International Publishing Group and Japan‘s Genron NPO from September to October, were released in Beijing and Tokyo last Tuesday.

It is interesting to see that a large majority of Chinese people want to build a better relationship with Japan. I don‘t think many Japanese are aware of that.

Kazuto Suzuki, University of Tokyo

The survey also found that the percentage of Japanese respondents holding a “very good or relatively good” impression of China stood at 10 per cent, declining from 15 per cent in 2019. However, a majority of respondents from both countries said they valued Sino-Japanese relations, with 74.7 per cent of Chinese and 64.2 per cent of Japanese in agreement with that sentiment.

“It is interesting to see that a large majority of Chinese people want to build a better relationship with Japan. I don‘t think many Japanese are aware of that,” said Suzuki, adding that Japanese are concerned and even fearful about Chinese military build-up because of the “opaqueness of Chinese intentions”.

“The lack of communication between Japan and China, as well as the lack of messages from Beijing [other than propaganda] would make Japanese people more suspicious of the intent of Chinese actions,” Suzuki said.

“There is a hope that Wang‘s visit followed by Xi’s visit would clear it up and provide assurance to Japan.”

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Wang Yi ready ‘to test the waters’ in talks with new PM

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