China-Australia relations: could the past year’s antagonism become the new normal?

Among dovish and hawkish voices alike, there is a growing belief that tensions are unlikely to improve in 2021

Beijing is expected to increase pressure on Canberra unless Australia takes ‘concrete actions’ to repair ties

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Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, left, with President Xi Jinping of China during the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, has stressed his openness to dialogue to resolve tensions with Beijing. Photo: Australian Prime Minister's Office

Published: 8:00am, 26 Dec 2020Updated: 8:11pm, 26 Dec 2020

For China-Australia relations, 2020 was the year things went from bad to worse – and worse again. The prevailing mood suggests 2021 may not be much brighter.

Although Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has stressed his openness to dialogue for resolving tensions, few observers see a diplomatic breakthrough on the horizon as Canberra and Beijing show no sign of budging on what appear to be increasingly non-negotiable differences.

Among dovish and hawkish voices alike, there is a growing belief that the antagonistic relations of the past year could become the new normal, or even be just the beginning of a spiral of escalation and recrimination.

China’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy and imposition of restrictions on A$20 billion (US$15.2 billion) of Australian exports have prompted Canberra and even the Australia China Business Council to rule out any compromise on core values in the face of perceived bullying and threats, while galvanising calls for international cooperation to counter Chinese economic coercion.

Beijing, meanwhile, has insisted Canberra take “concrete actions” to repair ties, after earlier this year issuing a dossier of 14 grievances – including Australia’s call for an inquiry into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic, its ban on Huawei, and “antagonistic” media reports about China – that it said had “poisoned” relations.

While dialogue continues at the consular level, Canberra has complained that the Chinese side has shunned offers of ministerial-level talks.

The view in Australia, increasingly, is that it needs to “accept relations with China will not improve in the near term and that we need to take significant steps to adjust”, said Dominic Meagher, visiting fellow at the Australian National University’s College of Asia and the Pacific.

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